We note the VIX has just posted a large 3-day decline of -30% with a closing level below 15

Probability Trader

We note the VIX has just posted a large 3-day decline of -30% with a closing level below 15. With regard to the VIX, an index level of 15 or below represents a rather subdued expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30-day period. In fact a VIX level below 15 is in the bottom third of all daily closing prices since 1990. Similar VIX setups have historically coincided with further S&P 500 advances. Since 1990, a large 3-day fall in the VIX of more than -25% with a closing level below 15, produced an average 20-day forward return of 1.69% for the S&P 500 Index with a solid win rate of 6 from 7 (max = 3.69%, min = -0.87%).


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