Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index June 2015

From Chief Economist Bill Evans. The six month annualised deviation from trend growth rate in the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months in the future, increased from -0.02 % in May to 0.06% in June. With the deviation from trend now back to near zero the promising signs that we saw in the early months of 2015 that growth in the economy might be lifting into ‘above trend’ territory through the second half of 2015 appear to be waning. The disappointment from the apparent lacklustre prints for growth in the Index which we are seeing around mid-year is that a lack of momentum going into 2016 might start to question the generally held view that 2016 will be a better year than 2014 and 2015. (VIEW LINK)