Westpac's Rennie says no taper in 2014 (from the AFR). We would debate how imminent taper is. We would debate whether the resources boom is over. Our house view remains that taper will not take place in 2014. If we are wrong, and taper does occur, it is likely that the Fed will drive a deeper wedge between taper and removal of balance sheet/rate hikes. A cut on the Interest on Excess Reserves rate looks increasingly likely. The unemployment hurdle is looking like it will increasingly need to be revised. An inflation hurdle looks very possible. All these would likely nullify much of the surprise of any taper. Read more: (VIEW LINK)
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wow, that really is well out of consensus...contrary to everything we have heard as well, even from the Fed doves.