Where do the ASX 200's best performers go next?

A quick look at the list of the best-performing stocks on the ASX 200 and a clear theme is likely to present itself. 

Strong and rebounding commodity prices have been one of the bigger stories in 2025, with gold the clear standout, and, as a result, mining companies dominate the top-performer charts this year.

It has also helped see the ASX Materials sector lead the way in the year to date, up 24%, and almost double the performance of its nearest sector rival (Industrials at 12%).

So while those willing to back certain mid-cap miners have reaped the rewards in 2025, is there more left in the tank?

Here is the broker outlook for the ASX 200's four top-performing stocks in the year so far:

1. Resolute Mining Limited (ASX: RSG)

Sector: Materials

YTD return: 194%

Consensus rating: BUY

African-focused gold miner Resolute Mining is the ASX 200's best performer so far in 2025, driven higher by soaring gold prices. It owns two mines in Mali and Senegal, as well as development assets in Côte d'Ivoire.

RSG currently has two BUY ratings and two HOLDS, with Canaccord Genuity the most bullish, setting a price target of $2 per share against its current price of $1.16.

In the September quarter, RSG reported 59.8koz of gold production at AISC of US$2,205/oz, inline on production but a miss on costs due to higher capex at its Syama mine in Mali.

While Canaccord maintain a BUY, it has revised its price target from $2.30 to $2, writing it is "increasingly cautious in 2026."

"CY25 guidance has been tempered to 275-285koz at US$1,750-1,850/oz (from 275-300koz at US$1,650-1,750/oz). Revisions relate mainly to lower production at Syama (-10% at mid point) due to the ongoing explosives supply issues, partially offset by higher expectations at Mako."

"The slight increase in cost guidance relates primarily to higher royalty costs. While RSG management has outlined some improvements in explosives supply in Mali (sufficient supplies for the rest of 2025), we are increasingly cautious in 2026."

Unlike Australian-based gold miners, Resolute faces ongoing threats from the jurisdictions in which it operates. As Macquarie wrote, "Execution of the Syama expansion project remains key to our outlook for RSG in Mali. Delivery of the Doropo feasibility study and positive progress towards development is also key longer term. RSG continues to be exposed to geopolitical risk in Mali due to recent actions by the government."

While it will likely be mostly driven by gold prices in 2026, RSG carries certain idiosyncratic risks that other gold miners don't have to contend with. As AllianceBernstein's Hamish FitzSimons said in an episode of Buy Hold Sell back in July regarding the prospects for gold miners, "You’ve got to dig deeper and not treat all projects as equal."

Regis Resources Limited (ASX: RRL)

Sector: Materials

YTD return: 188%

Consensus rating: HOLD

Gold miner Regis has also enjoyed a stellar 2025 off the back of record gold prices.

It recently reiterated its FY26 guidance of AISC of $3,610-2,990/oz and growth capital of $220-235m. It has also implemented a new mining plan for its Duketon North site, extending production life by six years to FY31 with preproduction capex of $80m. 

As Macquarie summarised in a recent note that retained a NEUTRAL rating, "Sales were lower than expected, while AISC was a 3% beat vs. consensus. Overall growth capital was higher due to ongoing development activities at Duketon (Tropicana spend in line)."

While its average rating is a HOLD, based on Market Index's broker consensus tool, RRL currently splits opinion, with three BUY ratings, three HOLDS and two SELLS.

It also currently has a negative potential return, according to averaged broker targets, though admittedly that is brought down by the fairly bearish target of $4.50 per share set by both Barrenjoey and Ord Minnett. 

UBS remains the most bullish, and recently set a price target of $8.30 per share, based mostly on its expectations of strong gold prices in 2026 to US$4,725/oz. 

Liontown Resources Limited (ASX: LTR) 

Sector: Materials

YTD return: 174%

Consensus rating: SELL

Like the gold miners, Liontown Resources has seen its share price surge in 2025 thanks mostly to a slight recovery in lithium prices.

The battery minerals miner recently held a digital spot sales auction on spodumene concentrate from its Kathleen Valley site, with a winning bid of US$1,254/dmt for SC6.0-equivalent product. According to Canaccord Genuity, that price is a 16% premium to the market. 

But it did little to move the consensus view. Canaccord retained its HOLD rating, while Citi retained its SELL rating, with a target price of $0.50 per share. In terms of lithium stocks, Citi places IGO and Pilbara ahead of Liontown, with the latter being the highest-cost producer. 

Elsewhere, Ord Minnett upgraded LTR to a HOLD from a Sell, off its forecasts for higher lithium prices.

LTR currently has one BUY rating, four HOLDS and five SELLS, with a consensus price target of $0.94, suggesting a potential return of -34% from current prices. 

I wrote a few weeks ago when Liontown was one of only three ASX 200 stocks with a STRONG SELL rating, that LTR is the only lithium stock given an UNDERPERFORM rating by Macquarie. 

As Macquarie argued then, "Variations in our capital and operating cost assumptions as well as the ramp-up profile of both the open pit and underground mines also present risks for LTR."

Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD)

Sector: Materials

YTD return: 165%

Consensus rating: BUY

Unsurprisingly, another gold miner rounds out the list of best-performing ASX 200 stocks in 2025. But WA-based Genesis Minerals presents a different opportunity to the other gold miners on the list, according to current broker consensus.

Overall, GMD currently has a BUY consensus rating, with six BUYS, two HOLDS and one SELL, with a consensus price target of $7.33, suggesting upside potential of 12%. It recently received an upgrade from JPMorgan to OVERWEIGHT from Neutral, with a revised price target of $8.50 per share. 

UBS reported that the imminent signing of the rail users agreement at Genesis's Tower Hill site could bring production forward to late CY27, and also beat consensus forecasts in its September quarter results. 

Barrenjoey is the one dissenting voice, retaining an UNDERWEIGHT rating and a $5.30 price target against GMD's current price of $6.52.

News also broke today around potential merger discussions between Genesis and Capricorn Metals, but little is known of how far those discussions progressed. 

What next? 

A record-breaking year for gold has translated into a stellar year for some of the ASX's gold miners, and a recovering lithium price was good news for Liontown. 

How these stocks fare next year will largely depend on how the underlying commodity prices perform, but there are idiosyncratic risks and opportunities even amongst the miners themselves, as indicated by current broker consensus. 

Given how one sector dominated this list, I'll also be writing a separate piece on the best-performing non-mining ASX 200 stocks, so keep an eye out for that. 

What are your thoughts? Will higher gold prices come to pass in 2026 and drive these market-leading miners even higher?