Why this investor always assumes a "worst case scenario" for every potential position

It's not being pessimistic, it's just being pragmatic.
Hans Lee

Livewire Markets

Over the last two years, the financial media has been littered with negative headlines around the impact that high inflation, rising interest rates, and increasing geopolitical tension will have on portfolio returns. 

For Alex Hone, Keyview's Founder and Managing Partner, the increased noise has provided the team with opportunities to take advantage of mis-priced loans in the markets. After all, just as rising rates have been a hindrance for some portfolios doesn't mean they have not served as tailwinds for others. 

But Hone is not resting on his laurels. While there are more solid opportunities than ever in his favoured parts of the economy, every potential investment must still be stress-tested. And how is this stress test conducted?

Edited Transcript

LW: What does being an “opportunistic investor” in the credit markets mean?

Hone: One of the strategies that Keyview undertakes is opportunistic debt via its Keyview Credit Opportunities Fund. What that really means is lending money as a senior secured lender to counterparties that are high quality in nature, but ultimately they're not open to the commercial banks typically. 

A commercial bank or a standard non-bank lender just want to process something in a very standardised format. So if you're a quality company or asset owner and you don't fit a natural box, then that means that they're typically not open for you to borrow from. 

Your other opportunity to go in to equity markets, but that can be very expensive. And groups like ourselves are intermediaries that play in between, that, yes, it's materially more expensive to a counterparty, but you're solving a problem for them.

And typically, those problems fall into one or three buckets in our experience. There's a timing issue, meaning they just need the money faster than a standard bank can actually provide it. Standard bank process might take three to six months, whereas we can move things along far more expediently than that. 

The second one is complexity. So there's a complexity to the business asset structure or the problem they're trying to solve. So it just takes more resource and more work to actually understand the commercial solution. 

And the third one is structuring. So being innovative about what other types of security you can take and thinking outside the box about not wanting to take more risk, but how you can use structural solutions to actually solve the counterparties' problems. 

And in all three instances, our counterparties are happy to pay a premium than they typically pay to a commercial bank to help them solve one of those problems. And that's why we call it opportunistic lending.

LW: You have a focus on mid-market businesses. What are the biggest opportunities and risks associated with that part of the market?

Hone: To describe what we do in terms of opportunistic lending, it's very similar to what the major investment banks, the Macquaries, the Goldman Sachs of the world historically have done on their own balance sheet, so with their own capital. And they typically focus on that $100-$150 million+ type of investment like minimum loan. For us, we focus on that $20-$100 million individual loan. So that's what we call mid-market investments.

And ultimately with that, the key thing we're always focused on is liquidity. The asset owners or the companies are slightly smaller than they are in that big end of town. We don't compete with those investment banks. Often we partner with them on certain investments. 

But ultimately, liquidity is your friend in this space. So one of the parts of our process is really focusing on the exit mechanism for our borrower to repay us. Is it the sale of an asset? Is it the completion of a project that then can be refinanced by a normal commercial bank, etc? So liquidity is a key focus for us always, as part of our investment due diligence process.

LW: What are some of the sectors you prefer investing in and are there any sectors you would avoid?

Hone: So for us, our north star is quality. We want to understand the quality of our counterparty. And quality means they're either asset-rich, so things that we can tangibly take security over, or there are consistent sustainable cashflow streams that are going to grow or be sustainable for us to be repaid from. 

Now, our ESG framework is ultimately built in a manner that it protects us from going into companies that are under social change, under major environmental change, have governance issues, etc. 

Because in its most simplistic manner, that goes to defeating the quality and the consistency of cashflow streams or the inherent value of the assets they own, which means that there's a depreciating value there and they're the sorts of things that we typically want to avoid. So the quality bias and the sustainability is our simplest tool for ensuring that we have the asset protection and therefore the coverage of our capital and certainty of repayment of our capital.

LW: Every good credit investment needs to be stress-tested. How do you test potential assets for their ability to perform in all market conditions?

Hone: Quite simply, when we go into an investment, we assume it's going to go bad. So whilst we're doing our due diligence, we assume as part of our investment underwriting, that the counterparties are going to get into a problem. You don't need to sit there and theorise why they've got a problem or what market events occurred. We ensure that we build in scenarios and do due diligence on what the process of taking from where we are to getting our capital and our return out.

And that typically means that we can appoint liquidators upfront to do part of the consultancy work to understand what the residual value in a stretch sale environment might be of inventory, or it might be of assets or PP&E. 

But that mentality that something's going to go wrong and then understanding how you're going to solve for that in the circumstance it does, we've found is a wonderfully beneficial way of looking at a problem from the other circumstance, because once you've entered into loan documentation, you're not going to get paid more. Your returns are capped and they're very attractive returns. They're typically in the mid to high teens in terms of loans. 

But ultimately, capital preservation and return of our coupon as well is key. So understanding if there's an issue, how we solve for that is a critical part of our investment due diligence and solves a lot of problems.


The Keyview Credit Opportunities Fund is currently open for investment and is available for wholesale investors.

Managed Fund
Keyview Credit Opportunities Fund

For more information or to contact Keyview, please click here.

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Hans Lee
Senior Editor
Livewire Markets

Hans leads the team's coverage of the global economy and fixed income. He is the creator and moderator of Signal or Noise, Livewire's multimedia series dedicated to top-down investing.

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