Will Easter Produce a Golden Egg?
It’s been a frustrating Q1 for gold investors. After racing above USD $1300oz in late January, the market has been in retreat, crashing below USD $1150oz by mid March. The price of the yellow metal bounced back USD $1200oz after the recent FOMC meeting, though gains were again capped, with the metal easing off since. The price action isn’t entirely surprising in light of the confusing data we’re getting regarding the US economy, and the confusing lead from the Fed. On the former, we're seeing the worst run of data (according to US macro surprise index) since 2009, with payrolls the only standout. On the latter, the Fed is no longer 'patient', yet still clearly dovish, with timing for the first interest rate hike pushed out to Q3 in most people's mind now. As to how the confusion will affect gold, depends on the time frame, but with CFTC positioning showing huge decent spec shorts, i think we might see an Easter bounce, unless payrolls surprise to the upside Full details here (VIEW LINK)
Gold bull since early 2000. Have spent +20yrs working in investment analytics, research & portfolio construction. Author of two books on investing in gold and the causes of the GFC. Lover of markets, competition & technology