Word Counts and Dot Plots: Why Economics Truly is the dismal science!
In any given day, investors come across many charts and tables, which are used to support whatever argument economists and analysts are trying to communicate. One stood out this week - highlighting the number of times the words "China", "Dollar" and "Global" appeared in economic outlook speeches by Janet Yellen. Alongside reports discussing movements in the 'dot-plot', this is what passes for economic analysis these days. In a world where ‘money’ is but the plaything of central bankers, we don't doubt its relevant, but one can't help but think it is a sad reflection on the state of the economic profession, and indeed the global economy. Speaking personally, I’d much rather if analysts could focus on employment levels, capital investment, corporate profitability, income growth, household debt to GDP ratios or global trade. But today, these statistics are a combination of either; - Misinterpretations of the overall trend (buybacks boosting EPS) - Distorted (unemployment decreasing due to plummeting participation rates) - Outright depressing; think capital investment or global trade volumes No wonder they call Economics the dismal science (VIEW LINK)
Gold bull since early 2000. Have spent +20yrs working in investment analytics, research & portfolio construction. Author of two books on investing in gold and the causes of the GFC. Lover of markets, competition & technology