Zip your wallet against economic forecasts

Roger Montgomery

While I believe macroeconomics is just about useless in explaining future returns, microeconomics is vital. Indeed, when explaining the success of Berkshire Hathaway in October 2003, Charles T. Munger noted; “year after year, in a kind of grind-ahead fashion, with very few failures, it eventually drew some attention, indicating that Warren and I knew something useful about microeconomics.” Macroeconomics is not a hard science, like mathematics or physics. It is a soft science and its analysis, and application to the pursuit of profits in financial markets is more a dark art than it is a robust tool that can be relied upon to produce predictable outcomes. If someone tells you that you should be doing X or Y because GDP, unemployment or inflation will be A, B or C, zip up your wallet. Read the full story: (VIEW LINK)


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