In the rough and tumble of investment markets its very easy to get distracted: by talk of the next best thing that will make you rich, by the ever-present predictions of an imminent crash, by the worry list that constantly surrounds investment markets relating to growth, profits, interest rates, politics,... Show More
2018 has been, so far, a year of transformational markets driven by populism, politics and policy. Tectonic plates are shifting under the market, and investors are rightly nervous. Despite nearer term fluctuations, U.S. equity markets still remain close to record valuations while looking fatigued. Meanwhile, Quantitative Easing (QE) is being... Show More
In the AFR today I argue that we are not "late-cycle" as so many commonly claim, but rather mid-cycle, which has profound ramifications for how one should optimally allocate capital (AFR subs can click here). Brief excerpt: Show More
The recent uptick in global market volatility has been driven by fears about price pressures and inflation. My colleague, investment director Andy Budden, answers questions about the inflation outlook and reflects on its implications for different asset classes. Show More
In “The Second Machine Age”, Eric Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee from MIT, chronologise how quickly technology is changing the world, and posit what the world might look like in the future. "Most fear that technology will replace most jobs. But the analogue and prediction I found most interesting was that... Show More
Once upon a time, the high yield bond market was for speculative companies and investors. Today, the market is where Virgin, Netflix and Hertz raise capital from institutional investors. In this short interview, Vivek Bommi from Neuberger Berman discusses how perception is still catching up with reality in this fast... Show More
If you see a bloke driving a Holden Ute through Sydney with two dogs in the tray and the words 'GIANTZ' blazed on the number plate, that'll be Paul Moore the CIO of PM Capital. The 30-year funds management veteran was an early backer of the GWS Giants and is... Show More
In response to the calamity caused by the GFC, interest rates were cut to near zero and we doubled the amount of debt outstanding. Fast forward and interest rates are now rising at the same time that ~$18 trillion of stimulus is being withdrawn. Show More
Economic growth in most countries continues to print at or above trend. The slack in economies created during the GFC and its aftershocks (Europe in 2011, emerging economies in 2015) is finally being eliminated. Whereas in each of the last few years there was considerable uncertainty about whether central banks... Show More
The ‘balanced’ portfolio has become an institution in the financial world. Equities and bonds are the main ingredients and the ‘mix’ determines the categories of balanced funds commonly used. Here we discuss this approach, and look at another option. Show More
April was a volatile month indeed – or so you would think if you have been following the news. While sensationalised reporting generates readership, a comprehensive assessment of the data often doesn’t support the narrative. Show More
The Australian Commonwealth budget announcement overnight has confirmed the size and trajectory of the Australian government bond market. The Australian Office of Financial Management’s (AOFM) updated issuance plans also indicate that bond supply will remain persistent. This acts to underpin capacity in the bond market for large investors seeking access... Show More
September 27th, 1983. What comes to mind? What if I include the quote from Bob Hawke? “Any boss who sacks a worker for not turning up today is a bum”. If you are over 45, you will know straight away. It was the day the yacht Australia II won the... Show More
While many investors fret about bonds or bond-like proxies from rising interest rates, the real danger lurking in the shadows is the prospect of rising risk premiums. Interest rates globally have already normalised, or maybe there is a little more to go. However, bond-like stocks already have wide risk premiums.... Show More
In my AFR column I reflect on Xi Jinping's masterful manipulation of Donald Trump and why a profound change in global hedging costs could radically reduce the returns Australian investors receive when allocating to US equities and US bonds (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs... Show More
Shareholders and bondholders have bought the Tesla growth story. However, my column in The Australian notes that Tesla's significant debt, negative free cashflow and losses loom large. Flagged higher production of the Model 3 hasn't materialised. Where to now for investors? Show More
In my AFR column I argue that Donald Trump's "tape bombs" are the tail wagging the global financial market dog right now, and this volatility begets opportunity (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can click here for direct access). Excerpt enclosed: Show More
Investors hunting for yield from listed companies today face unreliable yields, and falling capital values as rates creep higher, as well as new additional risks posed by government policies. However, investors can diversify their income and access comparable yields from other parts of the market not exposed to such headwinds. Show More
...Or that is what some equity pundits masquerading as bond experts want you to believe. They predict that a ‘bondcano’ of rising interest rates will lead to collapsing prices for bonds and bond-like proxies. Show More
The domestic Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS), and broader securitisation market has historically been restricted to institutional investors. However, the Gryphon Capital Income Trust (GCIT) offers a unique investment opportunity in providing exposure to this market for retail investors. Show More