Vimal Gor, Head of Bond, Income and Defensive Strategies at Pendal Group, says there’s just one fundamental driver of all asset prices. That driver is liquidity and Gor says that the current investment backdrop makes him feel the most bearish he's been in 2 years. Show More
In my column today I reveal that Australia is now officially experiencing the biggest house price falls on record in almost 40 years: home values across the five largest capital cities have officially fallen 8.3 per cent from their late 2017 peak according to the top index provider, CoreLogic, which... Show More
Australian bond yields declined rapidly over the December quarter, anticipating a major slowdown in the Australian and global economy. Real estate has a correlation to bonds, a function of the leases it has in place with its tenants and generally performs well in weak equity markets. Show More
In my column today I argue that to have any hope of divining the prospects for 2019, one has to first solve the Rubik’s Cube that was 2018 in which the most overvalued asset-class on the planet, government bonds, reigned as king—trumping cash—despite this column’s contrarian forecast of four Fed... Show More
It's safe to say that credit managers DO NOT want you to read the study we share here. It’s a Christmas cracker to be discussed over the BBQ this summer. In trying to diversify portfolios, are asset allocators actually adding risk using credit? Show More
In October 2017 we wrote that our biggest concern for the market was the unwinding of Quantitative Easing (QE). At the time, we used Marc Faber's analogy which is repeated below: Show More
Today I write (very short excerpt only): "Amidst the daily market chaos we can state a few things with certainty. First, the volatility of volatility (or the volatility of the VIX index in the US) is at a record high as investors struggle to figure out where fair value for... Show More
As a provider of asset allocation advice to fund managers and advisors, Brad Matthews provides an expert view of the big picture for each asset class. Weeks before 'Red October', Brad gave Livewire readers an explicit early warning in his wire offering ‘Three reasons to lighten your equity exposure'. Show More
Lately, we’ve been on edge with domestic and global corrections happening. Here are four defensive assets to further guard your portfolio against impact. Show More
Here I argue that anyone who tells you they know what's driving markets right now is lying or fooling themselves, which begets opportunity (click on that link to read the full column or AFR subs can click here). Excerpts enclosed: Show More
Credit is smouldering right now. When that smoke becomes fire, the door becomes a key hole and only the first few get through. The rest get burnt. Holding credit risks with your equity holdings into 2019 and 2020 seems mighty dangerous. Don’t get barbequed this season. Show More
The current Fed rate hikes, combined with efforts to shrink its balance sheet, represent the first sustained tightening in US monetary conditions, and therefore much of the developed world, for at least 30 years. So what does this mean for investors and how should they change their investment strategy to... Show More
East Coast residential property continues to soften as credit tightens, but in this interview with Charlie Jamieson, CIO at Jamieson Coote Bonds, he warns that property investors might make matters worse by becoming forced sellers in a falling market. Show More
The Fed has hiked 3 times this year and plans another four hikes by the end of next year. Their collective impact is still ‘in the post’ as hikes take time to bite. When we asked Charlie Jamieson, CIO at Jamieson Coote Bonds what he expects, he gave a sobering... Show More
Fixed interest is a core part of any good portfolio, but just how well is the asset class understood? In this exclusive Q&A with Livewire, Jay Sivapalan, Co-Head of Australian Fixed Interest and Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson Investors discusses the biggest theme in the market today, where he's seeing... Show More
Today I write about the following puzzle: Over 90 per cent of the equity raised by Australian companies is funded via the domestic stock market. Yet when these same companies issue safer debt (or bonds), which have predetermined returns and rank above shares in bankruptcy, local capital is suddenly missing... Show More
Today I review research that shows if Labor eliminates negative gearing and increases capital gains tax by 50%, national house prices could fall 9-12% on top of the current declines; parse new analysis from CoreLogic highlighting a spike in the share of apartment owners realising losses when they sell their... Show More
Today I bust a bunch of big myths relevant to the current price action: specifically, I show why bonds are, contrary to popular belief, a terrible equities hedge (the oft-mooted negative correlation is incredibly unreliable and often positive); why the popular low-rates-for-long meme is completely bogus; why you should not... Show More
The ‘reach for yield’ has caused formerly defensive portfolios to gradually venture into higher risk assets that could leave them exposed to downturns. As a consequence, Gopi Karunakaran, Portfolio Manager at Ardea Investment Management urges investors to question just how defensive their portfolios really are. Show More
This week I interview Tim Lawless, the head of research at Australia's largest real estate data company, CoreLogic, who says fears of a future Labor government eliminating negative gearing and doubling capital gains tax on housing (and equities) are one reason why house prices are falling as investors run for... Show More