Risk assets face an uncertain future as the Fed’s about-turn on monetary policy has left many investors wondering what’s next. However, according to Charlie Jamieson, Chief Investment Officer at Jamieson Coote Bonds, government bonds are well placed, with two clear pathways to a strong performance. On the one hand, a... Show More
Today I write about an interview this week with one of Australia's most successful and innovative funds management pioneers, Magellan's Hamish Douglass, who says he would have no issue with ASIC applying the Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) laws to the burgeoning listed investment company/trust (LIC or LIT) space to... Show More
A column in The Australian over the weekend argued that mums and dads should think about selling their fully franked bank Tier 1 hybrids to buy unfranked Tier 2 subordinated bonds. But this analysis is flawed on many bases, the most obvious of which is that the unfranked cash yields... Show More
There is an amazing breadth of opportunity in global fixed income, with many investors not realizing the sheer volume of trading that takes place and the size of bond markets – even here in Australia. I sat down with Ben Alexander from Ardea Investment Management to discuss his ongoing fascination... Show More
In the latest Compexity Premia podcast we cover recent Livewire articles and: debate whether the RBA is going to blow the housing bubble back up with interest rate cuts; discuss new RBA research that blames the central bank for the rapid house price growth between 2012-2017 (contrary to what the... Show More
In this new research paper, members of the quantitative research and portfolio management teams at Coolabah Capital Investments (CCI) present new evidence on whether the claimed alpha and beta benefits of ESG filters in both the global equities and corporate bond markets exist. You can download a full copy of... Show More
In my column today I write "if only the RBA had its brilliant new research on the impact of interest rates on house prices back in 2013 when I warned them that their easy money policy would blow a huge housing bubble, as it subsequently did" (click on that link... Show More
Diversifying your bond allocation to reach global markets can potentially accelerate returns by adding a layer of currency risk. As evidenced in 2018 – Australian investors with exposure to global high grade bonds ($USD) would have achieved double digit returns on an unhedged basis, in a year of low to... Show More
The IMF has just run a massive stress-test on all the Aussie banks, involving a 10% fall in GDP, a 30% drop in house prices, a blow-out in credit spreads and a recession similar to what the US experienced during the GFC. In my column today I discuss their findings,... Show More
Vimal Gor, Head of Bond, Income and Defensive Strategies at Pendal Group, says there’s just one fundamental driver of all asset prices. That driver is liquidity and Gor says that the current investment backdrop makes him feel the most bearish he's been in 2 years. “It’s quite clear that when... Show More
In my column today I reveal that Australia is now officially experiencing the biggest house price falls on record in almost 40 years: home values across the five largest capital cities have officially fallen 8.3 per cent from their late 2017 peak according to the top index provider, CoreLogic, which... Show More
Australian bond yields declined rapidly over the December quarter, anticipating a major slowdown in the Australian and global economy. Real estate has a correlation to bonds, a function of the leases it has in place with its tenants and generally performs well in weak equity markets. Show More
In my column today I argue that to have any hope of divining the prospects for 2019, one has to first solve the Rubik’s Cube that was 2018 in which the most overvalued asset-class on the planet, government bonds, reigned as king—trumping cash—despite this column’s contrarian forecast of four Fed... Show More
It's safe to say that credit managers DO NOT want you to read the study we share here. It’s a Christmas cracker to be discussed over the BBQ this summer. In trying to diversify portfolios, are asset allocators actually adding risk using credit? Show More
In October 2017 we wrote that our biggest concern for the market was the unwinding of Quantitative Easing (QE). At the time, we used Marc Faber's analogy which is repeated below: Show More
Today I write (very short excerpt only): "Amidst the daily market chaos we can state a few things with certainty. First, the volatility of volatility (or the volatility of the VIX index in the US) is at a record high as investors struggle to figure out where fair value for... Show More
As a provider of asset allocation advice to fund managers and advisors, Brad Matthews provides an expert view of the big picture for each asset class. Weeks before 'Red October', Brad gave Livewire readers an explicit early warning in his wire offering ‘Three reasons to lighten your equity exposure'. Show More
Lately, we’ve been on edge with domestic and global corrections happening. Here are four defensive assets to further guard your portfolio against impact. Show More
Here I argue that anyone who tells you they know what's driving markets right now is lying or fooling themselves, which begets opportunity (click on that link to read the full column or AFR subs can click here). Excerpts enclosed: Show More
Credit is smouldering right now. When that smoke becomes fire, the door becomes a key hole and only the first few get through. The rest get burnt. Holding credit risks with your equity holdings into 2019 and 2020 seems mighty dangerous. Don’t get barbequed this season. Show More
