In the AFR today I reveal that Australia's budget has shocked all analysts and credit rating agencies by moving into an official surplus for the first 11 months of the 2018 financial year---some $20 billion better than Treasurer Scott Morrison forecast in 2017---on 2 of the 3 key budget measures... Show More
The Australian Commonwealth budget announcement overnight has confirmed the size and trajectory of the Australian government bond market. The Australian Office of Financial Management’s (AOFM) updated issuance plans also indicate that bond supply will remain persistent. This acts to underpin capacity in the bond market for large investors seeking access... Show More
My AFR analysis this evening comes straight from six hours in the Canberra Federal Budget lock-up crunching the numbers, which reveal a brilliant, election-winning budget delivered by a Treasurer who just gets better and better (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can click here for... Show More
In the AFR I review the government's latest monthly financial data, which shows that Australia's budget deficit is the smallest since 2013 and currently running much better than expected care of strong commodity prices, corporate profits, and asset price appreciation. I also present new research that prices the downside risk... Show More
In The Australian Financial Review I show that the big Australian banks benefit from taxpayer subsidies worth more than $5bn per annum, or more than 10x what the car industry received in 2013, and excoriate those self-proclaimed libertarians and centre-right commentators who think the government should not be putting a... Show More
In The Australian Financial Review I demonstrate that contrary to some opinion, the modest bank levy is unequivocally a net credit positive, not negative, for the four major banks and Macquarie insofar as it enshrines into law for the very first time that they are truly government-guaranteed because of their... Show More
In The Australian Financial Review I explain using objective bond market data that the government's new 0.06% bank debt levy is actually very cheap and only about 35% of what they could have forced the largest banks to pay if they wanted to fully price the immensely valuable taxpayer subsidies... Show More
Local market popped on the open with better global sentiment post French election before pulling back on the reality of weaker commodities and do-nothing budget. Commodities were stable for a change after a week of bashing…but China hasn’t turned the corner…value has returned to the sector but the momentum remains... Show More
This time last year, JCB Advisory Board Economist, Saul Eslake warned of the risks of a Yuan devaluation: “A large devaluation of the Yuan would add renewed impetus to the deflationary pressures that policymakers in advanced economies are hoping will ebb this year.” This proved prescient as markets saw a sharp... Show More
Aussie market was hammered on weak global market and commodities sentiment. After the recent China data showed that the Q1 sugar hit to boost growth was beginning to dissipate and the commodities were sitting on speculator support. Commodities were falling overnight like “election promises”. Iron Ore futures are now one... Show More
Aussie market started negative before substantial buying support for the banks came out of the left field and drove the market higher even before RBA came out with a rate cut. It was almost like some big investors knew there was a rate cut coming or were willing to take... Show More
Aussie market started negative and went further negative on global investor selling before pulling back to slight negative on resource sector strength. Westpac lead the banking sector on the update season and it wasn’t pretty. The risk of falling currency and bad debt risk drove global investors to hammer the... Show More
This week my colleague Andrew Hanlan takes us through the key events for Australia during the (very eventful) past week. He then goes on to detail the implication for next week's RBA decision and #Budget 2016 Show More
Aussie market expected to open flat, but should trade down as the market moves to reduce exposure going into the weekend. There are enough negative news that can derail optimism in early March…(1) Oil likely to slide (2) US Fed meeting in mid-March (3) Chinese equities fell over 6% (4)... Show More
Aussie market started weak and finished weak after showing some life in the middle of the day. Overnight market was giddy about the potential deal to freeze oil production at sky levels by the two main producers, but clarity soon prevailed and the deal need to see cuts and needs... Show More
Aussie market ran up nearly 2.5% on global sentiment and commodities seeing some support before the US Fed update. The main game remains the US Fed move tomorrow morning and the rate rise is almost certain while the attention will be all about their outlook for the next few years.... Show More
Aussie market started positive with better commodity and global market sentiment before budget update draining the market of optimism. We have now had 13 out of the last 16 days being negative. Commodities took a breather for a change and the domestic budget delivered the negative news. The budget has... Show More
Aussie market was once again taken to the cleaners with negative global sentiment and falling currency. We have had 12 out of the last 15 days being negative. The rate rise in US will happen this week or any future US Fed update will become worthless. US Fed will raise... Show More
Aussie market started negative on global sentiment and then ran into global investor selling after employment data directly from the “Never Never Land”. ABS announced that Australia created over 70,000 new jobs while consensus expectations were for a loss of 10,000 jobs. The market is going to remain volatile till... Show More
Aussie market delivered a strong negative day on solid $5.5b turnover after mixed global sentiment. The US data continues to suggest that the rate rise in US will be delayed to Sep as we have been assuming. The RBA board and ASIC seems to be on the same page as... Show More