budget

In my column today I argue that ScoMo has a powerful economic policy agenda that will drive innovation, productivity and growth, it is just not the big interventionist narrative that the mainstream media want (click on that link or AFR subs can click here). Excerpt enclosed:The widespread media consensus that... Show More

First, a big thanks for the incredible interest in, and downloads of, our Complexity Premia podcast! We have just published the third episode where we: discuss analysis showing that the government’s fiscal budget is already in surplus and what this means for the looming election; reflect on the heated and... Show More

Today I show how ScoMo has already delivered a $7bn plus budget surplus on a number of the key measures years in advance of what rating agencies and analysts (save yours truly) expected, which is the best budget outcome since 2008. I then present the evidence I used to demolish... Show More

In the AFR today I reveal that Australia's budget has shocked all analysts and credit rating agencies by moving into an official surplus for the first 11 months of the 2018 financial year---some $20 billion better than Treasurer Scott Morrison forecast in 2017---on 2 of the 3 key budget measures... Show More

The Australian Commonwealth budget announcement overnight has confirmed the size and trajectory of the Australian government bond market. The Australian Office of Financial Management’s (AOFM) updated issuance plans also indicate that bond supply will remain persistent. This acts to underpin capacity in the bond market for large investors seeking access... Show More

My AFR analysis this evening comes straight from six hours in the Canberra Federal Budget lock-up crunching the numbers, which reveal a brilliant, election-winning budget delivered by a Treasurer who just gets better and better (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can click here for... Show More

In the AFR I review the government's latest monthly financial data, which shows that Australia's budget deficit is the smallest since 2013 and currently running much better than expected care of strong commodity prices, corporate profits, and asset price appreciation. I also present new research that prices the downside risk... Show More

In The Australian Financial Review I show that the big Australian banks benefit from taxpayer subsidies worth more than $5bn per annum, or more than 10x what the car industry received in 2013, and excoriate those self-proclaimed libertarians and centre-right commentators who think the government should not be putting a... Show More

In The Australian Financial Review I demonstrate that contrary to some opinion, the modest bank levy is unequivocally a net credit positive, not negative, for the four major banks and Macquarie insofar as it enshrines into law for the very first time that they are truly government-guaranteed because of their... Show More

In The Australian Financial Review I explain using objective bond market data that the government's new 0.06% bank debt levy is actually very cheap and only about 35% of what they could have forced the largest banks to pay if they wanted to fully price the immensely valuable taxpayer subsidies... Show More