fed

Macro
Brett Gillespie

The year is 1991. I’m trading Australian interest rates on the proprietary desk for Bankers Trust. The desk is headed by Richard Farleigh. And the quarterly CPI number is about to be released. In those days, there was 3 opportunities to “trade” a CPI number. First our economist, Andre Morony,... Show More

Christopher Joye

In the latest Compexity Premia podcast we cover recent Livewire articles and: debate whether the RBA is going to blow the housing bubble back up with interest rate cuts; discuss new RBA research that blames the central bank for the rapid house price growth between 2012-2017 (contrary to what the... Show More

Brett Gillespie

How good are you at reading people? How about a large frightened animal? It’s an interesting question, in today’s tech driven social world, to consider the skill of “reading” the situation. Is it being lost? Does it matter? Hold that thought, and consider the following. You are asked to step... Show More

Asset Allocation
Livewire Exclusive

Chris Watling from London-based Longview Economics has been a vocal bear for some time and recently called for an Australian recession. The real question now though is what can investors do with this information? We asked him and his responses were quite surprising. Chris, who also argues that the Fed... Show More

Macro
Brett Gillespie

January 1996. My wife was 8 months pregnant with our first child. I was a proprietary trader at Bankers Trust (had been since 1991), meaning I took macro views on interest rates and currencies. Indeed, very similar to what I do now, but with the bank’s capital rather than investors’... Show More

Macro
Marcelo Lopez

Last month we saw the FED raising rates for the 9th time in the last 3 years, now to 2.25-2.5% per annum. Also, this month, the FED might keep its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program to US$50 billion per month, in order to reduce its inflated balance sheet. Show More

Geoff Wood

In our office, we have switched from Secret Santa to Bad Santa. In Bad Santa, each member of the office draws a number from a hat. The lowest number then starts by picking and opening a present from a pile of wrapped presents. The next lowest number has the choice... Show More

Mary Manning

The positive trade outcome at the recent G20 meeting and dovish comments by US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell are both important catalysts for a rally in Asian markets into the year-end and early 2019. So for our Livewire Christmas Cracker, we are taking a look at a very attractive buying... Show More

Saul Eslake

Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year. Show More

Elizabeth Moran

In this second of a three-part series from guest contributor, ex ANZ Chief Economist, Warren Hogan, this note assesses the outlook for US bond yields and explains why the US 10 year Treasury yield could be heading for 3.50%. Show More

Jordan Eliseo

Precious metals prices have endured a difficult few weeks, after failing to push through USD $1350oz in early September. Continued strength in US equity markets, greater pricing in of an expected rate hike from the Fed, and a rally in the USD have all contributed to the weakness, as has... Show More

Callum Thomas

As expected (by me and pretty much everyone else) the Fed held interest rates unchanged and announced that it would commence its balance sheet normalization plan in October. The balance sheet normalization plan involves gradually ceasing reinvestment of principal from maturing bonds, and will result in a passive/automatic run-down... Show More

Sam Ferraro

A number of popular scapegoats emerged in the aftermath of the financial crisis: conflicted credit rating agencies, a corporate culture and regulatory environment that encouraged risk taking over risk management, lax lending standards, rapid growth in credit, and what some considered to be excessively loose monetary policy from the U.S.... Show More

Fred Woollard

Implied volatility is now trading at record lows across a variety of asset classes, especially in US equities. This means that option markets are priced in the belief that the economic and political outlook in America and the world is as stable as it has been for more than 25... Show More