Federal Reserve

Bulls claim they would, but history contradicts them: when valuations are extended, sharply lower rates crush rather than boost stocks.

Market returns have been strong in the first half of 2025.

Trump’s ambitious fiscal push, along with a generational-scale tariff aggression, is putting the US’s credit status to the test again.

Higher US bond yields reflect a higher expected future real short rate, the return of a real term premium & higher expected inflation.

The era of easy money is over – here’s what matters now.

Rejigged US "reciprocal" tariffs target China, where the increase in the US effective tariff rate is broadly unchanged from last week.

US GDP could contract in Q1 as consumer spending broadly stalls on higher actual/expected inflation and fears of higher unemployment

IMF analysis suggests that the Fed is too optimistic on the likely impact of initial Trump tariffs.

The Michigan survey showed consumer unemployment expectations at recession-like levels with a tariff-driven spike in inflation expectations.

The correction under way in US equities has started from a point of extremely expensive valuations relative to earnings and bond yields.

Its impact upon stocks – and of stocks upon it – has long been scant. Investors should ignore it and those who try to predict its actions.

US public debt is likely to reach a record share of GDP as tariff revenue and economic growth are unlikely to pay for Trump policies.

Barring last-minute changes, the US is imposing punitive tariffs on its close ally Canada, Mexico, and China, with a EU tariff to come.

The Fed expects inflation will take longer to return to target, with upside risks reflecting recent firmer inflation and Trump policies.

The Fed should forecast fewer rate cuts given firmer inflation, resilient economic growth, and the inflationary impact of Trump policies.

The RBA never raised rates by as much as other countries, so it has relatively less scope to cut them in a soft economic landing.

On the next Signal or Noise, we discuss what the Fed's first rate cut in four years means for Australian investors.

The Fed’s aggressive 50 basis point rate cut, while unconventional, reflects a proactive approach to stave off any potential economic weakness. Despite associations of...

The Fed hopes it can achieve a soft landing, lowering the policy rate to around 3%, broadly matching its estimate of the neutral rate.

The 50-basis point cut was a last-minute surprise that left markets scratching their heads about how to react.