Federal Reserve

Weaker demand for labour explains higher unemployment in most countries, but Australia's jobless rate has edged up on increased supply.

The US unemployment rate has edged above most estimates of the NAIRU for the first time since 2021, supporting a Fed rate cut next month.

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.

Interest rate cuts are being delayed, a pattern repeated many times this year.

A policy rule still points to a slow/shallow rate cut cycle in the US, steady rate cuts in the EA, and that the RBA should hiked a bit more.

The Fed is sidelined on rates for some time as it watches how inflation evolves after an unexpected surge in Q1.

Advertised wages growth is at/near pre-COVID levels in the US & EA, while still-high growth in AUS & NZ should improve this year.

The US economy stands out, with key measures of activity back in line with their pre-COVID trends, although Australia is not far behind.

The Fed is going to cut rates, but slowing growth means it may not be the time to be chasing equity returns.

Any delay in achieving the 2% inflation target points to interest rates staying high for longer

Measures of new rents are giving conflicting signals on the outlook for housing costs, which are a key driver of inflation.

CIO Dan Ivascyn discusses the benefits of locking in today’s elevated bond yields ahead of potential rates cuts around the globe.

Underlying inflation has picked up sharply in Q1 on a range of measures.

Central banks are starting to splinter, and that has big implications for whatever asset class you are in.

The Coolabah Capital CIO surveyed the global macro environment and revisited some of his biggest calls in this Rules of Investing interview.

Higher core inflation will disappoint the Fed and shake optimism about risk assets.

The path of inflation returning to the Fed's 2% target remains "bumpy".

The FOMC expects to cut rates at a faster pace than implied by a policy rule relying on its own economic forecasts.

Stock markets are hitting all-time highs. And why not? Interest rates don’t look to be going any higher and there is no recession on the cards, least of all in the US....

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