Federal Reserve

A new rate-cutting cycle is good news for equities, but investors shouldn't get complacent, says global market strategist Kerry Craig.

The equity market is more excited about lower short-term rates and bond yields than a weakening jobs market.

The Fed should cut rates given consumer spending has stalled and core inflation is tracking slightly below its forecast profile.

We test the accuracy of RBA forecasts versus the market & how the RBA and its peers set interest rates using recent history and forecasts.

Bulls claim they would, but history contradicts them: when valuations are extended, sharply lower rates crush rather than boost stocks.

Market returns have been strong in the first half of 2025.

Trump’s ambitious fiscal push, along with a generational-scale tariff aggression, is putting the US’s credit status to the test again.

Higher US bond yields reflect a higher expected future real short rate, the return of a real term premium & higher expected inflation.

The era of easy money is over – here’s what matters now.

Rejigged US "reciprocal" tariffs target China, where the increase in the US effective tariff rate is broadly unchanged from last week.