Federal Reserve

Latest news and analysis on Federal Reserve

Macro

Risks around Fed policy in a soft landing

The Fed hopes it can achieve a soft landing, lowering the policy rate to around 3%, broadly matching its estimate of the neutral rate.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut didn't spark a rally

The 50-basis point cut was a last-minute surprise that left markets scratching their heads about how to react.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Asset Allocation

How your portfolio should be positioned entering the Fed's first rate cut

Rate cuts are coming. The Fed needs to get ahead of the curve but the economy is slowing rapidly. That leaves risks elevated for investors.
Isaac Poole
Ascalon Capital
Macro

Soft landings nearly always prove elusive for the Fed

Soft landings are exceedingly rare in the US and the 1990s episode marks the only example of a successful soft landing.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The Fed and the RBA part company on policy

Improving inflation is consistent with the Fed cutting rates next month, while a hawkish-sounding RBA plans to keep rates on hold.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Economists and forecasting: Why do we have different opinions?

Despite looking at virtually the same sets of figures, economists often have different opinions about the outlook.
Diana Mousina
AMP
Macro

The drivers of higher unemployment across countries

Weaker demand for labour explains higher unemployment in most countries, but Australia's jobless rate has edged up on increased supply.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Meeting the Sahm rule recession threshold supports a September Fed rate cut

The US unemployment rate has edged above most estimates of the NAIRU for the first time since 2021, supporting a Fed rate cut next month.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Fed policy, the Sahm rule and the risk of recession

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

272,000 US jobs is not the same in old money

Interest rate cuts are being delayed, a pattern repeated many times this year.
Chris Iggo
AXA Investment Managers
Macro

Policy rules point to central banks diverging on rates

A policy rule still points to a slow/shallow rate cut cycle in the US, steady rate cuts in the EA, and that the RBA should hiked a bit more.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Some relief from US core inflation matching expectations in April

The Fed is sidelined on rates for some time as it watches how inflation evolves after an unexpected surge in Q1.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US & EA wages growth shows a sharp improvement, with AUS & NZ lagging

Advertised wages growth is at/near pre-COVID levels in the US & EA, while still-high growth in AUS & NZ should improve this year.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Judging post-COVID economic recoveries

The US economy stands out, with key measures of activity back in line with their pre-COVID trends, although Australia is not far behind.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Central banks constantly say they are "data dependent". Here's why you should ignore them

The Fed is going to cut rates, but slowing growth means it may not be the time to be chasing equity returns.
Isaac Poole
Ascalon Capital
Macro

US inflation could take longer to reach the Fed's 2% target

Any delay in achieving the 2% inflation target points to interest rates staying high for longer
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Rents pose a risk to US inflation

Measures of new rents are giving conflicting signals on the outlook for housing costs, which are a key driver of inflation.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Fixed Income

What to expect when you’re expecting rate cuts

CIO Dan Ivascyn discusses the benefits of locking in today’s elevated bond yields ahead of potential rates cuts around the globe.
PIMCO .
PIMCO
Macro

The Fed is challenged by higher inflation in Q1

Underlying inflation has picked up sharply in Q1 on a range of measures.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why the RBA won't follow the Federal Reserve (and what it means for your money)

Central banks are starting to splinter, and that has big implications for whatever asset class you are in.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
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