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Latest
Rules of Investing
Buy Hold Sell
Series
Buy Hold Sell
Expert Insights
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Success and More Interesting Stuff
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forecasting
Latest news and analysis on forecasting
Education
Why investors should acknowledge, respect and embrace uncertainty
It’s human nature that we tend to favour certainty in the stock market. But times of heightened uncertainty can lead to great opportunities for investors who position...
George Wong
Kauri Asset Management
Macro
Modelling puts China and US conflict risks at almost 50pc
In the AFR I write that back in 2012 this column argued that notwithstanding a wealth of data on the history of military conflicts, and the so-called “correlates of...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Education
Experts can’t predict yet investors must plan: What, then, to do?
In financial markets, predictions are ever-present and unavoidable. Yet investors worthy of the name don’t allow forecasts, including those of experts, to determine –...
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Equities
The art of the deal and stock picking
Well, that wasn’t supposed to happen. Not after all the hand-wringing, ripping up the models and changed polling techniques that happened after the 2016 election. As...
Nicholas Cregan
Fairlight Asset Management
Equities
Why the fixation on forecasting is misguided
It's results season, a lot of activity but any value? Every six months, the finance industry moves into a frenzy of pre, during and post-earnings analysis during the...
Stephen Bennie
Castle Point Funds
Equities
The importance of luck (and recognising it)
Early in my career, an important mentor of mine had a favourite saying, “I’d rather be lucky than smart”. At the time, I found this strange advice, as she was clearly...
Stephen Bennie
Castle Point Funds
Macro
Why do you pay attention to financial forecasts?
It’s that time of year when inboxes get flooded with 2019 economic and financial market forecasts. As the CFA institute points out, at the beginning of 2018 the median...
Gopi Karunakaran
Ardea Investment Management
How to become a 'Superforecaster'
Chad Slater
Ellerston Capital
Predictions and forecasts: Our views on the Melbourne Cup and the US election
Clime Investment Management
Clime Investment Management
Oil's rebound and other wrong-way forecasts
Livewire Equities
Livewire
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Equities
Buy Hold Sell: The top small-cap picks for 2023 (and 2 fundie
favourites)
Buy Hold Sell,
Livewire Markets
Funds
A portfolio of under-appreciated, mispriced and winning stocks
Nick Griffin,
Munro Partners
Equities
6 stocks for a full portfolio reset in
2023
Buy Hold Sell,
Livewire Markets
Equities
What worked in equity markets in 2022
Stephen Arnold,
Aoris Investment Management
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