It’s that time of year when inboxes get flooded with 2019 economic and financial market forecasts. As the CFA institute points out, at the beginning of 2018 the median analyst forecast for the S&P 500 calendar year return was +10.3%. The actual result ended up being -6.2%. Show More
In January, we were reviewing the Fund numbers for the 2016-year-end and there looked to be an error: the percentage return for the year was higher than the dollar change in the Funds Under Management and didn’t reconcile. After scratching our heads, we realised what the issue was, and it... Show More
We all want to pick a winner on Melbourne Cup Day! So once a year, on the first Tuesday in November, we become experts – scrupulously studying form guides, watching the movement in TAB odds and calling ‘mates’ you haven’t spoken to for 11 months and 29 days for an... Show More
This year’s stock-market correction reminds us once again that forecasting is folly. We have discussed this many times before so suffice it to say that the evidence is in: humans have no ability to say what will occur in the future. I was reminded of this courtesy of an article... Show More
Bloomberg has set themselves the task of finding Wall Street's most accurate economic forecasters. To do this Bloomberg Rankings crunched two years of predictions of 14 monthly economic indicators produced by 150 economists. In this slideshow Bloomberg rank the most accurate forecaster for each monthly indicator, and the most prescient... Show More