forecasting

Uncertainty, information overload and social media are driving investors to seek experts and influencers who can predict what comes next.

Over very long intervals, short-term random fluctuations (“noise”) cancel one another – and ever clearer and steadier signals emerge.

Their forecasts lure most investors into overconfidence – and thus losses. If you recognise experts’ biases, you can grasp opportunities.

Equity market volatility has been crushed. Does this lack of fear suggest complacency, or historically has this been a good time to invest?

Our economist Meghna Shah analyses the impacts of a Saudi supply disruption, utilising Indicio to model her forecast.

Static expected return forecasts lead to harsher drawdowns. Forward-looking forecasts produce more resilient portfolios.

Investors see it almost instantly when first searching a stock. Clearly, EPS is a hugely popular metric. But is it useful?

This week’s charts begin by visualising volatility in the foreign-exchange market over the decades

Find out who forecast the date of the real estate crash in 2008 years in advance - and why we should heed their advice about the next one!

Considering a valuation model for equity total returns, and how that can help investors understand what they own or might want to own.