forecasting

It’s human nature that we tend to favour certainty in the stock market. But times of heightened uncertainty can lead to great opportunities for investors who position...

In the AFR I write that back in 2012 this column argued that notwithstanding a wealth of data on the history of military conflicts, and the so-called “correlates of...

In financial markets, predictions are ever-present and unavoidable. Yet investors worthy of the name don’t allow forecasts, including those of experts, to determine –...

Well, that wasn’t supposed to happen. Not after all the hand-wringing, ripping up the models and changed polling techniques that happened after the 2016 election. As...

It's results season, a lot of activity but any value? Every six months, the finance industry moves into a frenzy of pre, during and post-earnings analysis during the...

Early in my career, an important mentor of mine had a favourite saying, “I’d rather be lucky than smart”. At the time, I found this strange advice, as she was clearly...

It’s that time of year when inboxes get flooded with 2019 economic and financial market forecasts. As the CFA institute points out, at the beginning of 2018 the median...