global growth

Callum Thomas

In the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report we looked at some surprising trends in global trade growth. I say surprising not because the improvement in global trade took me by surprise - our leading indicators clearly flagged it last year (when most people were very bearish on... Show More

Mathan Somasundaram

Despite short term stimulus reprieves, the medium to long term dynamics point to slowing global growth, weaker commodity prices and lower interest rates. The conflicting monetary and fiscal policy settings will continue to weigh on any global growth recovery. The risk of the US Fed move, the negative outlook for... Show More

David Bassanese

Amid the breathless reporting on the Chinese economy in January a widely quoted fact was that growth “had slowed last year to the weakest pace in 25-years”. This note places China’s recent growth performance in an historical perspective. As we will see in this analysis, Chinese economic growth has... Show More

Paul Hennessy

Emerging markets face many challenges, from a potential rise in US interest rates to low commodity prices and slower economic growth. It may seem that now is not the right time for emerging market debt. And yet, for long-term active investors the universe is broad enough and deep enough to... Show More

Livewire News

Disappointing payrolls data from the US, weak commodity prices and another downbeat set of business surveys have fuelled fears that global growth is collapsing. However, we continue to think these worries are overdone. While some key emerging economies are in recession and Japan is struggling, the US is still expanding... Show More

John Robertson

With copper metal inventories hovering near the equivalent of three weeks' consumption, only very minor changes to supply or demand could result in inventory outcomes which have been associated with strong cyclical conditions historically. The chart shows the end of year copper metal inventory data published by the International Copper... Show More

John Robertson

Washington press have been alerted to expect new global growth forecasts from the International Monetary Fund next Tuesday - arguably the most bullish development for the resources sector in over three years. The Fund's managing director has already intimated the revisions will involve the first lift in forecasts for the... Show More

John Robertson

Japanese GDP statistics for the second quarter missed expectations but do highlight (along with the GDP numbers from the US, the UK and China in recent days) the tendency toward a more stable global growth environment. At a global level, the current pace of growth is consistent with only minimal... Show More