interest rates

In what should come as no surprise to regular readers of this column, Australian house prices have declined for the second month in a row in June--and the pace of...

A-REITs have been a key beneficiary of cap rate compressions and falling interest rates in the past 10 years. With the RBA raising rates for the first time since...

The risk of a recession in the US in 2023 based on bond/equity market pricing and forecasts has surged as interest rates have risen and equities have slumped, with...

The change of policy in 2022 has set off a series of dominoes for asset markets. Government Bonds were first to fall in quarter one, with other assets also following...

In the AFR I write that back in early 2020, this column dusted off its double-barrel “shottie” and went hunting housing bears, which were confidently roaming...

The RBA will hike by 25 basis points tomorrow, according to the Australian Financial Review's economics editor, John Kehoe, bringing the target overnight cash rate...

The great Aussie house price correction has begun: the all-regions (ie, metro plus non-metro areas) national dwelling value index published by CoreLogic declined by...

In the AFR I write that in an age of record household debt, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy transmission mechanism is a beast to behold. When the RBA...

With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising the Cash Rate this month for the first time in 11 years and inflation marking its highest reading since the...

Aussie home values have started melting in concert with both the RBA and banks lifting both variable and fixed-rate borrowing costs, as we expected. According to the...

When Frederick Hayek accepted his Nobel Prize for Economics back in 1974 he noted that at the time, “Economists were being called upon to say how to extricate the free...

The RBA has a long history of getting the Aussie housing market's reactions to its cash rate changes horribly wrong, which is surprising given how easy the housing...

The RBA hikes rates by 25bps, with more set to come in 2022 as Australia’s central bank attempts to keep a grip on inflation. With oil and commodity prices set to...

US equities have fallen 14%-23% (S&P500 and NASDAQ) since we publicly revealed our bearish outlook on the market and many other correlated asset-classes, including...

Moving lower down the capital structure of higher rated corporate issuers can be a smart way to add higher returns to well diversified portfolios. In this article we...

The recent deluge of rain on the East coast of Australia had devastating impacts. While the extent of the damage was unpredictably extreme, meteorologists knew...

Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine has sent global financial markets into a tailspin. In this wire, Frame Funds Management's Hue Frame outlines what a "worst-case"...

In ‘Why elevated inflation will persist’ Pella posited that US inflation is likely to remain elevated through 2023 leading to monetary tightening during that period....

My beat at Fat Tail Investment Research is looking for beaten-up/out-of-favour ASX 200 stocks and analysing the macroeconomic environment. Having a good grip on macro...

A risk-management approach to unexpectedly high US inflation suggests that a fast return to neutral funds rate – 2½% on the Fed’s calculation or about 2% on market...