Australia: Good... but not great

Alex Joiner

In Australia, the outlook remains mixed, labour market and confidence metrics have remained solid early in the year and this is expected to continue. Yet other activity indicators continue to suggest a more modest pick up in growth may be expected with limited price pressures. Show More

inflation growth rates macro

How a trade war could benefit China

Ken Liow

The prospect of a trade war has become more significant again. While China may fare worse than the US in this scenario, there are some broader implications that could enhance China's power on the global stage, not least via the One Belt One Road initiative. Here I discuss this and... Show More

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Trump could cause the next global recession

Stephen Koukoulas

The Trump trade wars threaten the global economy. This is not an exaggeration or headline-grabbing claim, but an economic slump based on a US-inspired global trade war is a distinct and growing possibility as it would dislocate global trade flows, production chains and bottom line economic growth. Show More

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The five charts the experts are watching right now

Livewire Exclusive

Bond markets recently slapped equity investors in the face with a 50-basis point reminder of who is really in charge here. As the famous quote from James Carville goes: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or... Show More

Why Australian interest rates will rise in 2018

Elizabeth Moran

First in a three-part series from guest contributor, ex ANZ Chief Economist, Warren Hogan, this note assesses the outlook for Australia’s short-term interest rates. Show More

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What Moody's upgrade means for India

Mugunthan Siva

Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") last week upgraded the Government of India's local and foreign currency issuer ratings to Baa2 from Baa3 and changed the outlook on the rating to stable from positive. Show More

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How politics are impacting markets

David Sokulsky

The political environment is arguably more important now for investors than it has been for many years. Trump’s presidential victory in the US, the rise of ‘populism’ in Europe, and potentially more regulation for domestic energy, healthcare and banking sectors all have the potential to impact markets. Show More

Enhancing your returns with macro analysis

Livewire Exclusive

Macro analysis often gets a bad rap these days. Fund managers often prefer to associate themselves with value investors like Warren Buffett, who famously deride the use of macro analysis. However, we can’t all be Warren Buffett, so macro analysis can form an important part of many investment processes. Show More

Where are we in this bull market?

Livewire Exclusive

Sir John Templeton famously said; “bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, peak on optimism and die on euphoria.” With the S&P 500 hitting new highs, and growth returning around the world, it’s natural to question how far along the path we are today. Show More

macro business cycle investment strategy global macro

The truth about our debt

Stephen Koukoulas

Much is being made of the record level of household debt in Australia. The media is full of stories screaming about the risks of debt for the economy. Here I look at the truth about our debt. Show More

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Why Pimco is derisking

Livewire News

One of the world’s largest investment managers, Pimco, has been openly talking about de-risking the portfolio. In this short video just published, Group CIO Dan Ivascyn shortlists some of the key risks on their radar, and how they are adjusting the portfolios to be able to weather a recession. Show More

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This bull market isn't spent yet

Marcus Tuck

Three key indicators we focus on for a health check of the US equity market are: 1) The direction of US leading economic indicators (as a guide to future earnings); 2) The slope of the US yield curve (as an early warning of recession risk), and 3) The US equity... Show More

rates macro erp Yield curve forward indicators

It's just one bad week in a bull market

Marcus Padley

As usual with a big fall you can analyse the overnight news and debate whether the drop is warranted, but when it comes to a free market that rides on sentiment the answer is not whether the market should fall 274 points because the National Economic Council director is going... Show More

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Key takeaways from the brightest minds in the business

Crestone Wealth Management

Some of the brightest economic and investment minds in the business debated the big macro-economic issues at our latest Crestone Investment Forum. Read on for insights from Jacob Mitchell, Brett Gillespie, Vimal Gor, Dr Phillipp Hofflin, Robert Mead, Dr Michael McCorry, and Stephen Halmarick. Some of the key takeaways are... Show More

Ray Dalio: Risks are rising. Allocate 5-10% of your portfolio to gold

Livewire News

Ray Dalio, Chairman and CIO of Bridgewater Associates has released a new memo this morning where he notes that risks are rising and prudent investors should be preparing wisely. The key points of the memo are: Show More

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Brace yourself for choppy markets

Livewire Exclusive

As the era of QE draws to a close, central bankers face a conundrum: Nearly a decade of money printing has suppressed volatility… So, as QE is withdrawn, is volatility inevitable? Vimal Gor, Head of Income and Fixed Interest at BT, argues that the market has a bumpy ride ahead. Show More

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Unwinding QE - this could get bumpy

Livewire Exclusive

Quantitative Easing (QE) is the term used to describe artificial purchasing of bonds by central banks globally. The aim has been to suppress interest rates and stimulate ‘normal’ economic activity in the aftermath of the GFC. Show More

Chinese signals warn of headwinds for ASX

Daniel Want

In analysing China you often need to dive deeper than the officially reported statistics, often having to look at different ways to ‘triangulate’ different datasets in order to more solidly grasp what is really happening beneath the surface. They reveal that once again we are at an important juncture for... Show More

China macro

US rates will rise faster than expected

Livewire Exclusive

Tim Toohey, former Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, was the #1 rated economist on the Greenwich survey for 13 years. Earlier this year he teamed up Brett Gillespie Portfolio Manager of Ellerston Capital's new Global Macro Fund. Livewire spoke with Tim about his strong view on how US rates could... Show More

The end of QE: What it means for markets and investors

David Sokulsky

In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the traditional method of lowering interest rates failed to promote meaningful growth or inflation. This prompted several major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to undertake ‘extraordinary’ monetary policy measures to stimulate their economies. The effect of such an... Show More

equities fed banks ecb China housing qe markets gfc rates macro