Ah currencies. Just how important are they? Many pretend to understand, but are quickly confused. Even US presidents. I particularly like this exchange between President Nixon and his Chief of Staff, Haldeman: Show More
In “The Second Machine Age”, Eric Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee from MIT, chronologise how quickly technology is changing the world, and posit what the world might look like in the future. "Most fear that technology will replace most jobs. But the analogue and prediction I found most interesting was that... Show More
Around 12 months ago, I shared my 10 predictions for FY18. These included a peak for the housing market, struggling retail stocks, and global macroeconomic strength. It was great to see that a lot of these predictions proved true. With FY18 now over, Livewire have asked for my predictions for... Show More
Who said “Let them eat cake”? Most will answer Marie Antoinette. The Storming of the Bastille on the 14th July, 1789 marked the beginning of a French Revolution that was to last 10 years, overthrow the monarchy and replace it with a Republic, only to then see a military coup... Show More
In this report, we have isolated two of the leading indicators in Australia’s economy, namely building approvals and money growth, and highlighted some key themes arising from our findings. Our analysis is independent and takes account of evidence through liaison with industry contacts, combined with data. Show More
The narrative we see at the moment is for a US-led, global recovery. However, the U.S. economy is at 2% inflation and 2% growth. Both times we had these conditions in recent years, growth fell away very quickly. Here we look at a major headwind that could see this pattern... Show More
September 27th, 1983. What comes to mind? What if I include the quote from Bob Hawke? “Any boss who sacks a worker for not turning up today is a bum”. If you are over 45, you will know straight away. It was the day the yacht Australia II won the... Show More
...Or that is what some equity pundits masquerading as bond experts want you to believe. They predict that a ‘bondcano’ of rising interest rates will lead to collapsing prices for bonds and bond-like proxies. Show More
In Australia, the outlook remains mixed, labour market and confidence metrics have remained solid early in the year and this is expected to continue. Yet other activity indicators continue to suggest a more modest pick up in growth may be expected with limited price pressures. Show More
The prospect of a trade war has become more significant again. While China may fare worse than the US in this scenario, there are some broader implications that could enhance China's power on the global stage, not least via the One Belt One Road initiative. Here I discuss this and... Show More
The Trump trade wars threaten the global economy. This is not an exaggeration or headline-grabbing claim, but an economic slump based on a US-inspired global trade war is a distinct and growing possibility as it would dislocate global trade flows, production chains and bottom line economic growth. Show More
Bond markets recently slapped equity investors in the face with a 50-basis point reminder of who is really in charge here. As the famous quote from James Carville goes: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or... Show More
First in a three-part series from guest contributor, ex ANZ Chief Economist, Warren Hogan, this note assesses the outlook for Australia’s short-term interest rates. Show More
Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") last week upgraded the Government of India's local and foreign currency issuer ratings to Baa2 from Baa3 and changed the outlook on the rating to stable from positive. Show More
The political environment is arguably more important now for investors than it has been for many years. Trump’s presidential victory in the US, the rise of ‘populism’ in Europe, and potentially more regulation for domestic energy, healthcare and banking sectors all have the potential to impact markets. Show More
Macro analysis often gets a bad rap these days. Fund managers often prefer to associate themselves with value investors like Warren Buffett, who famously deride the use of macro analysis. However, we can’t all be Warren Buffett, so macro analysis can form an important part of many investment processes. Show More
Sir John Templeton famously said; “bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, peak on optimism and die on euphoria.” With the S&P 500 hitting new highs, and growth returning around the world, it’s natural to question how far along the path we are today. Show More
Much is being made of the record level of household debt in Australia. The media is full of stories screaming about the risks of debt for the economy. Here I look at the truth about our debt. Show More
One of the world’s largest investment managers, Pimco, has been openly talking about de-risking the portfolio. In this short video just published, Group CIO Dan Ivascyn shortlists some of the key risks on their radar, and how they are adjusting the portfolios to be able to weather a recession. Show More
Three key indicators we focus on for a health check of the US equity market are: 1) The direction of US leading economic indicators (as a guide to future earnings); 2) The slope of the US yield curve (as an early warning of recession risk), and 3) The US equity... Show More
