monetary policy

A lively discussion from the champions of fixed income

Commercial Real Estate Outlook: I just had a look at the latest Fed Loan Officer survey, and things are not looking good for what is a heavily credit-driven sector…...

Small Central Bank Interest Rate Decision Tracker: Back again onto one of my favorite charts — this one tracks monetary policy interest rate moves across the...

(dis)Inflation Expectations: Declining inflation expectations will be well received by the Fed and markets with respect to the prospects of a pivot or at least a...

The term "free money" has been everywhere in financial markets for most of the last two years. Its genesis comes from the fact that central banks pumped enormous...

Pricing Pressures Peaked (Piqued?): The global PMI pricing pressure indicator peaked earlier this year, and if past correlations hold we should expect further...

The patience of investors in more credit oriented fixed income funds has been sorely tested over the last 12 months. For such investors returns have been challenged...

Everybody knows that consumer prices in Australia, Britain, the U.S. and other countries have risen rapidly over the past year, and most investors know that they’re...

One of the interrelationships often utilised by investors in more credit heavy portfolios is that interest rates will provide a level of protection against ‘risk off...

A key finding from the RBA’s Saunders-Tulip model of the housing market that we have emphasised in judging the outlook for house prices is the extreme sensitivity of...

Italy’s 66th post-war government collapsed in January 2021 when a coalition led by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte crumbled. President Sergio Mattarella encouraged the...

For the first time since November 2010, the cash rate target has been lifted in Australia and for the first time since the reign of Glenn Stevens, the monetary...

Monetary Policy from Tailwind to Headwind: Last year I counted 123 rate hikes across 41 central banks… meanwhile already so far this year I’ve counted 67 interest...

A risk-management approach to unexpectedly high US inflation suggests that a fast return to neutral funds rate – 2½% on the Fed’s calculation or about 2% on market...

China Property Prices: The Chinese property market downturn extended through January, with the majority of cities seeing prices fall vs December, and close to 50% of...

Fed sweet spot indicator: Rate hikes, all else equal, tend to be bad for risk assets in that it incrementally removes monetary tailwinds, raises the discount rate...

Shadow policy rates on the rise: Shadow policy rates are designed to factor in the effects of quantitative easing (QE). They present a view of the effective level of...

Over the last decade, lower interest rates have failed spectacularly in moving inflation. This brings into question the same approach for the years ahead, where...

A more consistent environment for global asset prices and investment is being forged by China’s more “normal” interest rate approach, while other central banks dither...

Short dated bonds have aggressively repriced as inflation expectations rise and fears creep in that central bankers maybe heading towards a policy mistake as longer...