rba

The big forecast miss on Q3 inflation risks a slower return of inflation to target

Underlying inflation is tracking well above the RBA's forecast profile

The very tight labour market is still easing a little, ahead of key inflation data next week.

RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent discussed the five channels of monetary policy and what it means for inflation.

Higher interest rates have the same estimated effect on inflation in Australia, the euro area, and the USA.

The RBA announced a hold on interest rates for October, but don’t get too comfortable yet.

Weekly Update | 23rd September 2023

A shock to Chinese demand would mainly be borne by lower incomes, with a lower AUD a critical shock absorber.

Key Points: • Australia is at, or close to the end, of the fastest monetary policy tightening cycle since the late 1980s. • Every economic cycle is unique, but most...

Strong unit labour costs risk delaying the return of inflation to the 2-3% target band

Arguably the most significant lesson is that future Governors should intervene with monetary policy far less than he did.

In this wire, I outline five pivotal moments from the soon-to-be ex-governor's time at the helm of the RBA.

Another measure of wages shows labour costs are growing strongly.

Workers securing pay rises are achieving large increases.

The diminutive equity risk premium suggests Aussie stocks are more expensive than you think.

There has been an argument in recent months suggesting corporate profits are driving inflation. In this wire, I'll argue why that's wrong.

George Tharenou, UBS' Chief Economist for Australia, has called every RBA decision correctly since July 2022. He tells us how he does it.