rba

Latest news and analysis on rba

Macro

Why markets appear priced for perfection with little insurance for downside risk

The latest episode of our Complexity Premia podcast is live and addresses the outlook for 2024
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Consumer spending holds up even as real incomes slump

Households have started to tap the record excess savings buffers built up during COVID, offsetting the impact of falling real income.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Flat consumer spending & strong unit labour costs

Spending was held down by direct government cost-of-living subsidies in Q3, while unit labour costs continue to grow strongly.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Should we expect continued softness in retail sales?

A broader economic slowdown might still be necessary to convince the RBA that its policies are sufficiently restrictive.
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

RBA Governor Bullock: Australia has a "homegrown" inflation problem, more rate hikes are likely

At the Australian Business Economists' flagship event, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock signalled the Bank may not be done yet.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Reserve Bank's inflation challenge

The Reserve Bank's battle to tame inflation will be a slog. Here's why.
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Kiryll Prakapenka
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

National income rebounds and companies keep hiring

Business turnover rebounded in Q3, while payroll jobs continue to trend higher.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The RBA hikes interest rates again. But will this be the last one?

425 basis points worth of rate hikes are in the can. But will there be another 25 before Christmas?
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Markets are less sure the Fed and RBA will hit their inflation targets

Market measures of expected inflation have picked up, which is unusual this late in the cycle.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

A likely "material upward revision" to the RBA's inflation outlook

The big forecast miss on Q3 inflation risks a slower return of inflation to target
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA should hike in November on higher inflation

Underlying inflation is tracking well above the RBA's forecast profile
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Higher Q3 inflation should see the RBA raise rates

The very tight labour market is still easing a little, ahead of key inflation data next week.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Are the five horsemen of interest rates actually doing their job?

RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent discussed the five channels of monetary policy and what it means for inflation.
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Macro

Cash flows and the effectiveness of monetary policy

Higher interest rates have the same estimated effect on inflation in Australia, the euro area, and the USA.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

5 things you need to know about the RBA's October interest rate decision

The RBA announced a hold on interest rates for October, but don’t get too comfortable yet.
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Macro

US Federal Reserve held rates at 5.5%, Canadian median CPI y/y rose 4.1%

Weekly Update | 23rd September 2023
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

The potential economic impact of a China shock on Australia

A shock to Chinese demand would mainly be borne by lower incomes, with a lower AUD a critical shock absorber.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Australia's Rate Surprise

Key Points: • Australia is at, or close to the end, of the fastest monetary policy tightening cycle since the late 1980s. • Every economic cycle is unique, but most...
Alex Cathcart
Drummond Capital Partners
Macro

Strong unit labour costs challenge the RBA

Strong unit labour costs risk delaying the return of inflation to the 2-3% target band
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Education

Reflections ahead of Philip Lowe’s last speech

Arguably the most significant lesson is that future Governors should intervene with monetary policy far less than he did.
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
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