rba

Latest news and analysis on rba

Macro

US & EA wages growth shows a sharp improvement, with AUS & NZ lagging

Advertised wages growth is at/near pre-COVID levels in the US & EA, while still-high growth in AUS & NZ should improve this year.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Judging post-COVID economic recoveries

The US economy stands out, with key measures of activity back in line with their pre-COVID trends, although Australia is not far behind.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Signal and noise in the April unemployment rate

Unemployment has picked up, but the labour market remains tight with the RBA raising its estimate of the NAIRU.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Conflicting messages on policy from the RBA

The RBA thinks rates are at the right level to to return inflation to target, but discussed hiking today and warned on upside risks.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

What the smartest rates strategist on the street thinks about RBA

Barrenjoey's Andrew Lilley is miles ahead of both his peers and the RBA
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Higher inflation should see the RBA revise up its outlook

History suggests that there is the risk that the RBA revises up its longer term forecasts of inflation.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The RBA should warn that it could raise rates again

High inflation reinforces that the RBA should have raised rates by more last year, in line with its peers.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Australia's corporate insolvencies have hit their highest level in at least 25 years

The monthly number of insolvencies has reached the highest level since ASIC began compiling statistics in 1999.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Asset Allocation

Where to invest if the RBA does or doesn’t cut interest rates

In a confusing and divided economic cycle, we hope this matrix will help make your investing journey easier!
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Education

The RBA Board needs renewal and greater independence

The removal of the government's override powers, along with greater economic and financial markets expertise, are badly needed
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

Persistent services inflation contrasts with falling goods prices

Underlying inflation is tracking in line with the RBA's forecast, with strong services inflation contrasting with falling goods prices.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why we think the RBA is too pessimistic about a key part of inflation

It is the one area of the inflation report that is still too stubborn to come down. But relief may be on the way sooner than the RBA thinks.
Diana Mousina
AMP
Macro

More evidence of strong wages growth

The AWOTE and AWE measures of wages grew strongly at the end of last year.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

A spike in unemployment on flat employment as hiring patterns change

A large spike in Australian unemployment and flat employment looks affected by changing hiring patterns.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Investment Theme

Who will be the winners and losers this reporting season?

This interview was originally published on 14 February, 2024
Future Generation
Future Generation
Macro

Will the RBA wait until inflation is less than 3% to start cutting?

Analysis of previous examples of the RBA cutting interest rates before inflation was in the target range provides insights on what to expect
Jonathan Kearns
Challenger
Macro

Everything you need to know about today's RBA meeting

The first RBA two-day monetary policy meeting concludes today (Tuesday). For the first time, the Statement on Monetary Policy and forecasts are being released at the...
Jonathan Kearns
Challenger
Macro

The easing cycle to come risks being the same as the last

As the RBA shapes up to potentially cut rates in 2024 should we be asking more from monetary policy and monetary policy-makers?
Alex Joiner
Alex Joiner
IFM Investors
Macro

Policy rules and risks to current market pricing of interest rates

CCI used policy rules to judge the risks around market pricing of rates in the US, euro area and Australia.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Subsidies exaggerate the improvement in underlying inflation

Government subsidies appear to overstate the improvement in underlying inflation heading into Q1.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
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