rba

A policy rule still points to a slow/shallow rate cut cycle in the US, steady rate cuts in the EA, and that the RBA should hiked a bit more.

The consumer looks in better shape than the RBA had feared, with spending revised up as households tap still-substantial excess savings.

Below is a summary of the topics we covered on Nucleus Investment Insights this month. See the links for more information.

Advertised wages growth is at/near pre-COVID levels in the US & EA, while still-high growth in AUS & NZ should improve this year.

The US economy stands out, with key measures of activity back in line with their pre-COVID trends, although Australia is not far behind.

Unemployment has picked up, but the labour market remains tight with the RBA raising its estimate of the NAIRU.

The RBA thinks rates are at the right level to to return inflation to target, but discussed hiking today and warned on upside risks.

Barrenjoey's Andrew Lilley is miles ahead of both his peers and the RBA

History suggests that there is the risk that the RBA revises up its longer term forecasts of inflation.

High inflation reinforces that the RBA should have raised rates by more last year, in line with its peers.