Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) provide a source of highly rated assets with consistent income generation. Two questions immediately come to mind when looking at them: how risky are they and how they should be priced? As will be discussed, RMBS are often maligned as being riskier than facts would... Show More
Today I argue that Australia is behaving like the indulgent and entitled child of a billionaire, quote my own 8 year old's analysis of what the two political parties have to offer (even I was surprised), and explain why we are not residential-mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) haters and arguably one of... Show More
The latest episode of our very popular Complexity Premia podcast is now live where we discuss: the coming of Aussie quantitative easing (QE); the eruption of hostilities between the US and China in the trade war; the end of the great Aussie housing correction; why we are getting more positive... Show More
This week I argue that while RBA governor Phil Lowe passed with flying colours the controversial intelligence test we pitched him last week (by not cutting the cash rate in May), he is nonetheless likely to cut over the next few months. And although he is exhausting his conventional monetary... Show More
Today I argue that while Labor have given ScoMo a shot of winning the election with its shocking recent mis-steps and its bizarre tax-everything-that-moves-platform, the media coverage and political analysis has never been more biased in all likelihood because those inside the beltway fervently believe that ScoMo does not have... Show More
First, a big thanks for the incredible interest in, and downloads of, our Complexity Premia podcast! We have just published the third episode where we: discuss analysis showing that the government’s fiscal budget is already in surplus and what this means for the looming election; reflect on the heated and... Show More
Today I show how ScoMo has already delivered a $7bn plus budget surplus on a number of the key measures years in advance of what rating agencies and analysts (save yours truly) expected, which is the best budget outcome since 2008. I then present the evidence I used to demolish... Show More
In assessing whether to get long or short residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), we undertake a great deal of quantitative analysis, including revaluing the homes that protect these bonds at regular intervals and developing globally unique RMBS default and prepayment indices. (Regular readers will know that we exited most of our... Show More
Today I argue that the smartest thing RBA governor Phil Lowe could do is get the banks to cut rates for him---preserving his monetary policy ammunition for a real crisis---and show that substantial reductions in bank funding costs might enable our largest lenders to do precisely that. I also reveal... Show More
Coolabah developed the world's first compositionally-adjusted, or hedonic, regression-based index of RMBS default rates, covering all prime deals that Bloomberg reports on (you can download the paper here). We update this index monthly, and the results are enclosed below. Show More
