There was a brief period when “Faded (Where are we now)” topped the charts recently and we thought it would be an apt title for this week’s blog. Late last year, our Head of Macro and Risk did an excellent piece looking at how markets behave once the Federal Reserve goes... Show More
Markets have changed and probably not for the better. Investor complacency seems to be the norm as their reliance on central banks and policymakers to come to the rescue every time the market starts to jitter, makes them sleep comfortably at night. In what has been the longest bull market... Show More
Buying undervalued stocks is traditionally the way investors seek to deliver returns over the long term. At Vega Capital, we utilise a differentiated way of looking at the markets in the United States and discuss it in today’s blog. There are two overarching algorithms we utilise, the first uses macroeconomic... Show More
Let’s start by reviewing what the yield curve actually is. Consider a range of durations for government notes, for example, you can have 3-month notes, 1-year notes, 2-year notes and so on up to 30-year bonds and notes. Show More
In my last blog, I provided an overview of Vega Capital’s model for identifying and pre-empting recessions in the United States. Last Thursday (at WeWorks Martin Place), I presented a talk on how our model would have approached the Great Depression and other recessions. The former is what I’ll be... Show More
Let’s start by defining what a recession actually is. Google’s dictionary defines it as ‘a period of temporary economic decline during which trading and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters’. In short, we’re looking for some sustained contraction in GDP. So... Show More
Something unusual may have happened in 2018, and it’s not a double-digit correction in equity markets. The rare event is that for the first time in at least 25 years, real returns from 10 major asset classes are likely to be negative this year. With major economies slowing, concerns regarding... Show More
In my last Livewire post, I commented that The Vega Fund would be looking closely at economic data over the coming months to determine whether it should remain long (and weather out what I believe is a temporary correction) or whether going short would be a viable option. Show More
Statistically speaking a 10 to 20 per cent correction should occur about once a year (averaged out over time). Hence to see one shouldn’t be such a great surprise...but when it occurs, how do we handle it? Show More
With markets pulling back over the past few weeks, many investors are wondering whether this is the beginnings of a bear market. Today I wanted to discuss these trends and how I’d approach them. Show More
