Over the past few weeks, you may have noticed President Trump’s rhetoric has centred around trade and resulted in the escalation of tensions between the US and other economic powers of the world. Many investors are wondering what downside risk they might be exposed to and whether a recession is... Show More
This week it's the PE10 and the impact of the financial crisis. Specifically what we're looking at is how the PE10 or CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings) ratio would look like if you excluded the impact of the crash in earnings during the financial crisis. The bottom line is... Show More
This week it's the Fed's bank loan officer survey and the S&P500. The US Federal Reserves's loan officer survey provides insight into bank lending standards, and can give an important cross check against the markets. So much so, that you could easily call this chart the bear market warning indicator.... Show More
Long dubbed ‘Woodstock for Capitalists’, or the Stockmarket Superbowl as we prefer, the recently held Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting offered plenty of insights for investors big and small. Show More
This week the "Chart of the Week" looks at the energy sector of the S&P500 and specifically how it fits in in terms of market capitalization weight and share of total earnings across the index. Simply put, energy stocks have fallen to the lowest market cap weighting since late 2003... Show More
With a performance that is on track to 20-bag this year, there is little doubt it’s going to be a very Merry Christmas for Bitcoin enthusiasts, many of whom have made truly astonishing gains in 2017. Show More
BT Investment Management’s Crispin Murray, Vimal Gor, Peter Davidson and Ashley Pittard provide a summary of the key drivers of investment markets in 2017 and share their thoughts on the prospects for each asset class in 2018. Show More
Local market recovered to finish a better than expected negative day after substantially weak lead from US market. Global markets were rattled by the terror attacks in Spain while US market was worried that Gary Cohn may follow the CEO walkout from US president’s leadership groups. Global economies are showing... Show More
Despite our many worries about the world, we think it quite probable that the S&P Index has not yet peaked. Indeed, we think that the US market could accelerate its rise. I outline three reasons why, and one way to trade it, below: Show More
The Euphoriameter rose again in July, with the combined sentiment reading for the S&P500 lifted by higher forward PE ratios, a falling VIX, and rising levels of bullish sentiment in the surveys. The chart will probably trigger memories or comparisons to the 1990's because aside from the surge coming out... Show More
The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index data for July showed a distinct sense of upside capitulation. The headline global index was up 7.9 points to 108.9 - this was driven purely by North American institutional investors with the North Am index up 10pts to 112.1 which offset declines in... Show More
Following on from the popular post on the seasonal turning point for the VIX last week, here's an insight into seasonality for the S&P500. The chart shows 2017 superimposed on the historical average price movement across the year, and it looks like a fairly decent fit, with the implication being... Show More
This Bloomberg article, ‘Lucky Country getting left behind’, demonstrates the extent to which our market has decoupled the global equity trend, and also the extent of the iron ore slide, the carnage in retail, and the narrowing yield spread. Bets are now increasing for a rate cut… Show More
The Nasdaq Composite index is overbought and is located near key resistance of the long-term upward trend channel that originated in 2008. It is now also located at overbought levels on a momentum / RSI basis which is reason for caution relating to the sustainability of the current rally. Show More
Geopolitical concerns, delays to the Trump Administration’s planned fiscal stimulus, and benign US economic and inflation data have made bond markets more relaxed and equity markets more volatile. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield has rallied from a recent peak of just over 2.6% in March to about 2.2% now.... Show More
It is a significant negative momentum indicator that over the last two days a number of key global indices have generated technical sell signals in a cluster - Dow Jones, S and P 500, Nikkei, ASX200 index and Toronto TSX60. (There is no potential in the near-term for technical sell... Show More
One of most reliable early warning indicators of an impending equity bear market is the shape of the US yield curve. When short-term interest rates are higher than long bond yields, it is a sign that monetary policy is tight enough to choke off growth in the economy and company... Show More
Each half, we provide a series of “anti-forecasts” for what will NOT happen over this period. Discover whether our July 2016 calls ended up being right. Next week, we will publish our forecasts for the coming six months. http://www.morphicasset.com/blog/scorecard-anti-forecasts-dec-16/?woo_source=Livewire/ Show More
This week's S&P500 #ChartStorm looks at some interesting charts on topics like sector performance and revenues, the prospects for active management, and some important signals for the market outlook. Take a look at the charts and add your thoughts in the comments. Show More
Here's 10 charts on the S&P500 covering the short term outlook, medium term earnings outlook, US election, and political risk. Overall a similar conclusion from last week holds i.e. that short-term there remains some risks, but medium term the outlook is positive on the back of improving earnings. Aside from... Show More
