unemployment

Latest news and analysis on unemployment

Investment Theme

Fisher Investments Australia® Reviews the Unemployment Rate’s Shortcomings

The unemployment rate is one of the most scrutinised economic indicators, but it has its limits—and being aware of them can be useful.
Fisher Investments Australia®
Macro

US consumers send stagflationary signals about the outlook

The Michigan survey showed consumer unemployment expectations at recession-like levels with a tariff-driven spike in inflation expectations.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA cuts by 25bp, cautious on more cuts given inflation does not return to the 2½% target

The RBA cut rates, but was cautious in signalling more cuts given underlying inflation is no longer forecast to hit the 2½% target.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBNZ to cut further on rising unemployment

NZ remained in recession at the end of last year, with unemployment rising above 5% and employment falling again in Q4.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Persistent excess demand vs returning inflation to target

The RBA optimistically expects inflation will return to target without spare capacity emerging in the economy.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why the odds are now in favour of a softer landing

Could the economy be dodging a recession? New data suggests a softer outcome might be on the horizon
Xinyu Ru
Fawkes Capital Management
Macro

Soft landings nearly always prove elusive for the Fed

Soft landings are exceedingly rare in the US and the 1990s episode marks the only example of a successful soft landing.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The Fed and the RBA part company on policy

Improving inflation is consistent with the Fed cutting rates next month, while a hawkish-sounding RBA plans to keep rates on hold.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Dark clouds ahead: The rising risk of a US recession

Based on recent developments, we believe the likelihood of a recession occurring within the next 9 to 12 months is more likely than not.
Xinyu Ru
Fawkes Capital Management
Macro

The drivers of higher unemployment across countries

Weaker demand for labour explains higher unemployment in most countries, but Australia's jobless rate has edged up on increased supply.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Meeting the Sahm rule recession threshold supports a September Fed rate cut

The US unemployment rate has edged above most estimates of the NAIRU for the first time since 2021, supporting a Fed rate cut next month.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Fed policy, the Sahm rule and the risk of recession

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Risks around a sharp rise in unemployment

Falling job vacancies could see sharp increases in unemployment in the US and UK, while the EA and Australia look further from this point.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

New Zealand in recession

NZ unemployment continues to rise as employment falls.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Earnings season forecasts are diverging at a historic pace

For our first pack of new charts in 2024, we take a deep dive into historic trends.
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Fixed Income

Watching grass grow

On fixed rate bond exposure, now is not the time to have zero, but it is not the time to fill your boots.
Charlie Callan
BondAdviser
Macro

Real yields, Taiwanese trade and Bitcoin’s rally

This week’s charts begin with a historic look at US bond returns
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Macro

Higher Q3 inflation should see the RBA raise rates

The very tight labour market is still easing a little, ahead of key inflation data next week.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Chinese CPI y/y fell -0.3%, US core inflation m/m steady at 0.2%

Weekly Update | 11th August, 2023
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

Charts of the Week - Foreign workers in Japan, equities’ waning appeal and disinflation

This week’s charts begin by visualising the steady increase in foreign workers hosted by historically immigration-averse Japan.
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
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