Have you ever pushed the limit? Sure you have, just that little bit further, just that little bit faster. It’s the secret to success. But also sometimes disaster… Perhaps nowhere is breaking that limit as obvious as on a race track. Yet how many of us, as amateurs, love to... Show More
If Australia has an Achille’s heal it’s the high and still rising level of household debt that has gone hand in hand with the surge in house prices relative to incomes. Whereas several comparable countries have seen their household debt to income ratios pull back a bit since the Global... Show More
In the AFR today I explain why long-term forecasting is a waste of time; why Australia's jobless rate in December 2018 will likely be 0.75% to 1.0% lower than the 5.5% rate the RBA is currently forecasting; why the enigmatic Guy Debelle might one day make a great governor; and... Show More
With residential property prices starting to misfire, we reached out to three experienced property investors for their perspectives on the market. We posed the question: “What do investors need to watch for in coming months, and why?” Read on below as to why you need to keep a hawk’s eye... Show More
The local property market has become Australia's favourite topic of debate. It seems everyone has a view and just last week UBS released a research note calling the top for Australian property. So for equity market investors is this something to be concerned about or is it just making headlines? Show More
Labour automation is the next major disruptor to industry. While it is predicted to trigger insidious job loss across developed and developing nations, it creates an incredible opportunity for investors. By understanding which industries both spend heavily on staff and are most vulnerable to robots, investors can gain from the... Show More
The Australian economy is in reasonable shape as 2016 draws to a close. Real GDP growth is around three per cent, inflation is 1.5 percent while the unemployment rate is hovering near 5.75 percent. To be sure, it would be desirable if growth was a little stronger and unemployment lower,... Show More
Aussie market was hammered due to strengthening USD after US Fed minutes pointed to rate rise cycle. The rising USD took down commodity prices and currencies everywhere. Resources were the most beaten up today and that may last a few more weeks as every US data confirming potential rate rise... Show More
Bloomberg has released its “2015: The year in Money” report. The 10 highlights were 1) Apple hit a record $775B market cap. 2) Netflix was the best performer in the S&P500 (Up 143%) 3) Sales of investment grade corporate bonds are at an all time high. 4) The junk bond... Show More
Aussie market was directionless with US being closed and gave up the early slight optimism to finish slightly in the red. The market today is best explained through two stocks on either end of sentiment spectrum. SGH has had its life beaten out of it for what market sees as... Show More
ABS jobs data for October caught the market by surprise with strong reported jobs creation pushing the rate of unemployment to 5.8%. The strong data backs up the RBA's glass half full rhetoric on the domestic economy which underpins their reluctance to cut interest rates. Chad Slater from Morphic Asset... Show More
Stephen Long, the economic correspondent at the ABC says investors should “be sceptical” about the Australian jobs numbers that were just released for October. He says “the seasonally adjusted labour force estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for October sound incredible and they should be treated as just that:... Show More
In The AFR yesterday I considered the history of the US business cycle and the relationship between recessions, changes in the jobless rate, and inflation. This is crucial because the Fed has for the first time admitted what we long suspected: Yellen is hell-bent on driving the US jobless rate,... Show More
Aussie market ran into unexpected ANZ cap raising and higher than expected unemployment and came out second best. Investors were selling the banks as the other three could be doing the same anytime soon as well as funding source for ANZ raising. The macro scene was not great with unemployment... Show More
This chart from Quartz is a quick reminder that last night initial claims for state unemployment benefits in the US declined 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 255,000 for the week ended July 18, the lowest level since November 1973. http://qz.com/ Show More
Australia's jobs numbers surprised the market significantly to upside. Employment rose by +42k in May (market had +15k) and the unemployment rate fell to 6.0% (market had 6.2%). Most importantly, it is becoming increasingly likely that the unemployment rate may have passed it peak. In previous cycles, this has marked... Show More
Unemployment figures have just been released from the ABS with the full release here: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0?OpenDocument . Certainly no alarm bells in the headline figure with the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate falling 0.2 pts to 6.0%. The report states; "Employment increased 42,000 to 11,759,600. Full-time employment increased 14,700 to 8,128,600 and... Show More
Gerard Minack has given a comprehensive interview to the ABC covering recession, politics, property bubbles, equities and Greece. Minack says Australia is unlikely to see a recession this year but it is still on the cards for CY16/17. “The one indicator I'm watching I think, stands head and shoulders above... Show More
The US and Australia are in different employment cycles. As a result of a Fed Funds rate near zero and quantitative easing, US unemployment is falling. In Australia, interest rates are well above the zero bound. The RBA was worried that there might be a possible wages breakout caused by... Show More
RBA continues to grapple with political uncertainty. One of the things that's unsaid is that the political environment has become more uncertain, and that's constraining business confidence to some degree. The other thing that's unsaid is that global interest rates have come down over the past few months. And if... Show More