unemployment

The RBA has marked down potential growth on slower productivity growth, while trimming the neutral policy rate and lowering the NAIRU.

The unemployment rate is one of the most scrutinised economic indicators, but it has its limits—and being aware of them can be useful.

The Michigan survey showed consumer unemployment expectations at recession-like levels with a tariff-driven spike in inflation expectations.

The RBA cut rates, but was cautious in signalling more cuts given underlying inflation is no longer forecast to hit the 2½% target.

NZ remained in recession at the end of last year, with unemployment rising above 5% and employment falling again in Q4.

The RBA optimistically expects inflation will return to target without spare capacity emerging in the economy.

Could the economy be dodging a recession? New data suggests a softer outcome might be on the horizon

Soft landings are exceedingly rare in the US and the 1990s episode marks the only example of a successful soft landing.

Improving inflation is consistent with the Fed cutting rates next month, while a hawkish-sounding RBA plans to keep rates on hold.

Based on recent developments, we believe the likelihood of a recession occurring within the next 9 to 12 months is more likely than not.