US Inflation

Analysis suggests there is merit to Warsh arguing that trimmed mean inflation is better than the traditional core PCE series.

After rallying in 2025 there are important reasons for investors to be more cautious regarding US long bond rates going into 2026.

The Fed should cut rates given consumer spending has stalled and core inflation is tracking slightly below its forecast profile.

An oft-repeated mantra from the Trump regime is that tariffs in Trump’s first term barely affected inflation. Which is true.

US GDP could contract in Q1 as consumer spending broadly stalls on higher actual/expected inflation and fears of higher unemployment

Annualised core US inflation rose to 3.8% in January up from a 1.7% trough in July, although some economists point to US PCE still falling.

Barring last-minute changes, the US is imposing punitive tariffs on its close ally Canada, Mexico, and China, with a EU tariff to come.

The Fed expects inflation will take longer to return to target, with upside risks reflecting recent firmer inflation and Trump policies.

The Fed should forecast fewer rate cuts given firmer inflation, resilient economic growth, and the inflationary impact of Trump policies.

US inflation came in low. Services are still running hot, but that is mostly driven by housing costs. It would seem that the housing costs in CPI are probably...