3 ASX winners and 3 losers, according to brokers

Reporting season isn't just about whether companies beat or missed expectations. It’s also when analysts tear apart the numbers, reset their forecasts and decide which stocks still offer value.

This week produced some sizeable calls.

Among the winners, brokers see double-digit upside in Pro Medicus, Stockland and Artrya, with Bell Potter forecasting a whopping 45% return from the latter.

But the news wasn't nearly as encouraging elsewhere. Whitehaven Coal and Aurizon had their price targets cut following underwhelming outlooks, while Morgan Stanley delivered a warning that will grab the attention of income investors: it expects no dividend growth from any of the Big Four banks in FY27.

Here are six broker calls that caught our attention this week.

Note: Stay tuned for my interview with Market Partners’ James Gerrish, which we’re aiming to publish this afternoon. We’ll discuss CSL, BHP, Temple & Webster, Zip and more.

The winners

Pro Medicus: Morgan Stanley lifts price target to $220

Morgan Stanley has become even more bullish on Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) following its FY26 result, lifting its price target from $200 to $220 and retaining its Overweight rating.

The broker believes the bigger story isn't the modest earnings beat, but growing evidence that Pro Medicus could emerge as a “net AI winner” rather than a victim of AI disruption. It expects revenue growth to accelerate from 23% in FY26 to 31.5% in FY27, followed by around 29% in FY28 and FY29.

There is one obvious catch: valuation. PME trades at around 75 times FY27 EBITDA. Morgan Stanley nevertheless argues its exceptional financial profile and forecast growth justify the premium.

“PME benchmarks as world class on the ‘Rule of 40’ metric at ~74%. PME is also highly profitable with 99% gross margin, 78% EBITDA margin, ~50% FCF margin, and 56% net profit margin," Morgan Stanley said.

• Rating: Overweight
• Price target: $220, up from $200

Stockland: Macquarie lifts price target as data centres enter the equation

Macquarie has maintained its Outperform rating on Stockland (ASX: SGP) and lifted its price target 12.7% to $5.22, representing a forecast total shareholder return of 20.3% from the $4.55 share price at the time of the report.

Stockland delivered FY26 funds from operations per security of 36.9 cents, up 9%, while FY27 guidance of 38–39 cents came in comfortably ahead of Macquarie and consensus forecasts. The broker subsequently lifted its FY27 funds from operations (FFO) estimate by 7%.

The big opportunity is data centres. Stockland has secured around 450MW across three sites through its partnership with EdgeConneX, which Macquarie estimates could represent a potential $9 billion development program.

“SGP is executing on strategy, has an attractive earnings growth profile and the new partnerships are accretive," Macquarie said.

Rating: Outperform
Price target: $5.22, up 12.7%

Artrya: Bell Potter sees 45% upside

Bell Potter has maintained its Buy rating on Artrya (ASX: AYA) and lifted its 12-month price target from $6.10 to $6.75, implying a 45.2% upside from the $4.65 share price at the time of the report.

For those unfamiliar with the company, Artrya is a Perth-based medical technology business founded in 2018 that uses AI-powered image-analysis software to improve the detection and management of coronary artery disease.

The company remains in the early stages of commercialising its technology, reporting an FY26 operating loss of around $27.6 million and net operating cash outflow of $18 million. However, with around $74 million in cash, Bell Potter believes Artrya is well funded to roll out its Salix cardiac imaging platform until reaching its expected breakeven point in FY28.

The focus now shifts to execution. Foundation customer Tanner Health has reported 50–80% reductions in CCTA interpretation times, while NGHS has been onboarded and Cone Health is expected to follow this quarter.

“Workflow integration accuracy and speed are the key differentiators for the Salix platform, and so FY27 is expected to demonstrate the repeatability of these benefits, that should then be a launching pad for wider adoption," Bell Potter said.

Rating: Buy
Price target: $6.75, up from $6.10
Implied upside: 45.2%

The losers

The Big Four banks: Morgan Stanley sees no dividend growth

On the loser front, the outlook looks decidedly mediocre for Australia’s biggest banks, with stretched valuations, feeble earnings growth and a key source of shareholder returns - dividends - coming under pressure.

Morgan Stanley has sounded a warning for Australian bank investors, maintaining its Cautious view on the sector as slowing loan growth, intensifying mortgage competition and rising deposit costs threaten margins.

The broker has cut its average FY27 earnings estimates for the majors by around 7% since the start of May.

But the standout call concerns dividends.

Morgan Stanley now expects zero dividend growth from ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac in FY27, forecasting dividends of 166 cents, 505 cents, 170 cents and 154 cents respectively. It also sees an increasing risk of dividend cuts at NAB and Westpac should earnings disappoint.

Its preferred major is ANZ (ASX: ANZ), rated Overweight, while CBA (ASX: CBA), NAB (ASX: NAB) and Westpac (ASX: WBC) are all rated Underweight.

"The combination of an uncertain outlook and high payout ratios warrants a conservative approach to capital and dividends. Our base case now assumes flat dividends at all four majors in FY27 .... we also believe there will be more focus on the rising risk of a dividend cut at NAB and WBC," Morgan Stanley said.

Whitehaven Coal: Bell Potter cuts target as FY27 outlook disappoints

Bell Potter has maintained its Hold rating on Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC ) but cut its 12-month price target from $8.05 to $7.50, leaving essentially no expected total return from the $7.55 share price at the time of the report.

Whitehaven’s FY26 result fell short of expectations, with underlying EBITDA of $1.25 billion versus Bell Potter’s $1.32 billion forecast, while underlying NPAT of $227 million missed its $282 million estimate.

More concerning was the outlook. FY27 guidance points to managed production of 38–41Mt, versus 40.3Mt in FY26, while unit costs are expected to rise to $132–147/t. Bell Potter subsequently slashed its FY27 EBITDA forecast by 12% and cut its FY27 EPS estimate from 39 cents to just 19 cents.

“In the medium term, WHC are positioned to capitalise when coal markets sustainably improve with a diversified portfolio of assets in Queensland and New South Wales and strong organic growth optionality," Bell Potter said.

"We have a positive long term met coal outlook, driven by constrained supply and increased demand from steel producers reliant on seaborne met coal (i.e. India)."

Rating: Hold
Price target: $7.50, down from $8.05

Aurizon: UBS sees a tough outlook for the rail giant

UBS has maintained its Sell rating on Aurizon (ASX: AZJ) and trimmed its 12-month price target from $3.50 to $3.40, implying around 9% downside from its $3.73 share price at the time of the report.

Aurizon's FY26 result itself was broadly solid, with underlying EBITDA of $1.72 billion, up 9%. The problem is what comes next. FY27 EBITDA guidance of $1.725–1.775 billion implies growth of just 0–3%, while dividend guidance of 23–24 cents was 6–10% below incoming consensus expectations.

Coal haulage is a particular concern. Contracted volumes are expected to fall from 231Mt to 211Mt, costing Aurizon an estimated $60–70 million in high-margin take-or-pay revenue.

“Despite falling 10% on results day, AZJ is still trading above our price target. We continue to see risks that Aurizon's non-coal strategies take longer to improve ROIC, and now above-rail Coal is showing signs of weakness from recontracting in a low/no growth industry context," UBS said.

"The dividend yield (FY27E at 6.1% with high franking) provides some downside protection for investors seeking relatively low risk, real asset exposure, but in our view it won't grow materially over the over the next three years (~1% pa) as the Group absorbs further growth headwinds in FY28 and FY29."

Rating: Sell
Price target: $3.40, down from $3.50