The outlook for the AUD

Paul Moore, Chief Investment Officer at PM CAPITAL, says they’ve lightened their USD exposure as they now feel the AUD is close to fair value. “We think most of the decline in the Australian Dollar is over. If it had kept in-line with commodity prices it probably had another 10 or 15% to go, but we’ve still got higher interest rates than everyone else.” One of the keys to their view is the outlook for the US economy. “We still expect the US economy to grow, but it’s only going to be a couple of percent [per annum].” Subdued rates of growth like this are unlikely to suck in capital as they did during the dot-com bubble, he says. He expects the AUD to track sideways against the USD for a while as 70c seems about fair value.