As a holiday treat we're making the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes available for free: http://www.topdowncharts.com/2016-special-edition This edition looks at some of my favorite charts and themes of the year from the weekly report, including the charts that worked (and those that didn't... Show More
The below chart appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes http://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2016/11/25/Weekly-Macro-Themes---25-November-2016 and shows the well known US Dollar Index (or DXY) vs the average 10-year government bond yield differential across the G10 currencies. There appears to be a pretty clear relationship between the interest differential indicator and... Show More
John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Group, thinks that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may initiate a 'reasonably sized stimulus measure' before implementing helicopter money. This could happen after the US election as the BoJ needs to feel comfortable before the next phase of quantitative easing can begin.... Show More
Bonds are the traditional safe-haven asset, popular in a risk-off market. Shares are the popular risk-on asset, rising in times of market confidence. This is the basis for traditional diversification, and the principal underpins one of the central theories in finance. So why are bonds and shares rallying simultaneously? Both... Show More
The US dollar lost its safe haven play last week when it encountered major resistance from its 200 days moving average level, according to Saxo Capital Markets Sydney-based trader James Kim. In the next few days, the US Dollar Index might be testing re-entering the channel it broke during the... Show More
These days, no currency around the world is as stable as gold - and it has outperformed all of the world’s major currencies since late 2015. Gold is money and in today's environment it offers a yield that is competitive with all of them. Moreover, while central banks can print... Show More
Can financial markets sustain yesterday’s remarkable rally as the referendum on Britain’s EU membership draws closer? A weekend opinion poll showing the Remain side three points ahead fuelled hopes that Brexit could be avoided. The probability of a Leave vote fell to 22% on the gambling markets, having been 37%... Show More
The USD index (DXY) previously generated a technical top formation in early February 2016 (as highlighted by chart below) which indicated the potential for further downside to occur. The DXY has now completed an upward reversal / closed above key resistance which has generated a technical buy signal. The technical... Show More
Paul Moore, Chief Investment Officer at PM CAPITAL, says they’ve lightened their USD exposure as they now feel the AUD is close to fair value. “We think most of the decline in the Australian Dollar is over. If it had kept in-line with commodity prices it probably had another 10... Show More
Are you fretting that we could be poised to slump into a recession? No one will blame you as both equities and credit markets are pricing in a strong probability that Australia’s golden 29-year recession-free run is coming to an abrupt end. The S&P/ASX 200 is threatening to slip into... Show More
Since the beginning of the month the Japanese Yen has only traded downwards against the US dollar. Even with the shock move into negative rates territory by the Bank of Japan has been unable to exercise any lasting effect on weakening the JPY exchange rates. Saxo’s Head of FX Strategy... Show More
I feel that for us to continue being successful global macro investors in 2016, it is imperative we get the portfolios currency positions right. Show More
Loose monetary policy from central banks has steadily projected asset prices higher since 2009. However, with the Fed starting to tighten monetary policy the cool winds of change have sent chills through equity markets. Geoff Wilson, Chairman of Wilson Asset Management, says the market needs to endure tighter monetary conditions... Show More
With the world's second largest economy about to take the largest annual holiday in the world: Chinese New Year. It's worth assessing the possibility of what would be a welcome and, arguably, overdue 'gift' from the Chinese central bank; the People's Bank of China. Saxo Capital Markets' analyst Kay Van-Petersen... Show More
If you follow the Chinese calendar, 2016 is set to be a year of trickery and turmoil and it all kicks off in the first quarter of 2016, says Saxo Capital Markets’ Asia Macro Strategist Kay Van-Petersen. If you want to know about Kay's trading strategies for equities, commodities and... Show More
With so many central banks meeting this week, Saxo Capital Markets' Asia Macro Strategist Kay Van-Petersen discusses the currency crosses he's looking at. Kay is now suggesting long term macro trade of the Aussie Dollar against the Swiss Franc. He also explains why he's long AUDNZD. To watch his insights,... Show More
On five recent occasions when the Fed has started to raise rates again the USD has actually depreciated. See chart below (originally published by Credit Suisse) Show More
Optimistic comments concerning a December rate hike from the US Fed Janet Yellen strengthened the US dollar, against most currencies today including the Aussie Dollar. Saxo Capital Markets traders based in Australia say that even though the AUDUSD traded higher on Wednesday, it failed to stay above the key resistance... Show More
The devaluation of the Yuan is setting in motion events that will directly affect the US economy. Saxo’s chief economist Steen Jakobsen says the consensus on the recycling of excess capital from Asia to the US bond market will change. There will also probably be “a significant reduction in China’s... Show More
The People’s Bank of China has just devalued the Chinese yuan by almost 2%, announcing too significant changes to the existing exchange rate regime. John Hardy, Head of FX Strategy at Saxo says there’s probably more devaluation to come in the near future, as the more freely floating offshore yuan... Show More
