Weekly Macro Themes - 2016 End of Year Special Edition

Callum Thomas

As a holiday treat we're making the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes available for free: This edition looks at some of my favorite charts and themes of the year from the weekly report, including the charts that worked (and those that didn't... Show More

US Dollar Strength - Overhyped and Overvalued... but Justified

Callum Thomas

The below chart appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes and shows the well known US Dollar Index (or DXY) vs the average 10-year government bond yield differential across the G10 currencies. There appears to be a pretty clear relationship between the interest differential indicator and... Show More

The market may be getting ahead of itself in expecting helicopter money from the Bank of Japan, says Saxo Group's John Hardy

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Group, thinks that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may initiate a 'reasonably sized stimulus measure' before implementing helicopter money. This could happen after the US election as the BoJ needs to feel comfortable before the next phase of quantitative easing can begin.... Show More

US Dollar might be re-entering the channel it broke during the Brexit referendum

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

The US dollar lost its safe haven play last week when it encountered major resistance from its 200 days moving average level, according to Saxo Capital Markets Sydney-based trader James Kim. In the next few days, the US Dollar Index might be testing re-entering the channel it broke during the... Show More

Remain standing: Brexit and the markets

Livewire News

Can financial markets sustain yesterday’s remarkable rally as the referendum on Britain’s EU membership draws closer? A weekend opinion poll showing the Remain side three points ahead fuelled hopes that Brexit could be avoided. The probability of a Leave vote fell to 22% on the gambling markets, having been 37%... Show More

The outlook for the AUD

PM Capital

Paul Moore, Chief Investment Officer at PM CAPITAL, says they’ve lightened their USD exposure as they now feel the AUD is close to fair value. “We think most of the decline in the Australian Dollar is over. If it had kept in-line with commodity prices it probably had another 10... Show More

Worried about a recession? One powerful group of traders are betting we won’t sink into one!

Avatar fallback

Are you fretting that we could be poised to slump into a recession? No one will blame you as both equities and credit markets are pricing in a strong probability that Australia’s golden 29-year recession-free run is coming to an abrupt end. The S&P/ASX 200 is threatening to slip into... Show More

The Bear Market we need to have?

Buy Hold Sell

Loose monetary policy from central banks has steadily projected asset prices higher since 2009. However, with the Fed starting to tighten monetary policy the cool winds of change have sent chills through equity markets. Geoff Wilson, Chairman of Wilson Asset Management, says the market needs to endure tighter monetary conditions... Show More

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New Year gift to the global economy from China?

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

With the world's second largest economy about to take the largest annual holiday in the world: Chinese New Year. It's worth assessing the possibility of what would be a welcome and, arguably, overdue 'gift' from the Chinese central bank; the People's Bank of China. Saxo Capital Markets' analyst Kay Van-Petersen... Show More

Essential Asia-Pacific Trades for Q1 2016

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

If you follow the Chinese calendar, 2016 is set to be a year of trickery and turmoil and it all kicks off in the first quarter of 2016, says Saxo Capital Markets’ Asia Macro Strategist Kay Van-Petersen. If you want to know about Kay's trading strategies for equities, commodities and... Show More

AUDUSD remains under pressure, say Saxo traders

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

Optimistic comments concerning a December rate hike from the US Fed Janet Yellen strengthened the US dollar, against most currencies today including the Aussie Dollar. Saxo Capital Markets traders based in Australia say that even though the AUDUSD traded higher on Wednesday, it failed to stay above the key resistance... Show More

The consequences for the US from the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

The devaluation of the Yuan is setting in motion events that will directly affect the US economy. Saxo’s chief economist Steen Jakobsen says the consensus on the recycling of excess capital from Asia to the US bond market will change. There will also probably be “a significant reduction in China’s... Show More

Did China just float the yuan?

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

The People’s Bank of China has just devalued the Chinese yuan by almost 2%, announcing too significant changes to the existing exchange rate regime. John Hardy, Head of FX Strategy at Saxo says there’s probably more devaluation to come in the near future, as the more freely floating offshore yuan... Show More