Stanley Druckenmiller is one of the most accomplished macro traders the world has ever seen. He worked closely with the legendary trader George Soros at the Quantum Fund. In addition to being closely tied to Soros’ infamous ‘breaking’ of the British Pound, Druckenmiller made successful multi-billion dollar bets on the... Show More
As a holiday treat we're making the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes available for free: http://www.topdowncharts.com/2016-special-edition This edition looks at some of my favorite charts and themes of the year from the weekly report, including the charts that worked (and those that didn't... Show More
The below chart appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes http://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2016/11/25/Weekly-Macro-Themes---25-November-2016 and shows the well known US Dollar Index (or DXY) vs the average 10-year government bond yield differential across the G10 currencies. There appears to be a pretty clear relationship between the interest differential indicator and... Show More
John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Group, thinks that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may initiate a 'reasonably sized stimulus measure' before implementing helicopter money. This could happen after the US election as the BoJ needs to feel comfortable before the next phase of quantitative easing can begin.... Show More
Bonds are the traditional safe-haven asset, popular in a risk-off market. Shares are the popular risk-on asset, rising in times of market confidence. This is the basis for traditional diversification, and the principal underpins one of the central theories in finance. So why are bonds and shares rallying simultaneously? Both... Show More
The US dollar lost its safe haven play last week when it encountered major resistance from its 200 days moving average level, according to Saxo Capital Markets Sydney-based trader James Kim. In the next few days, the US Dollar Index might be testing re-entering the channel it broke during the... Show More
These days, no currency around the world is as stable as gold - and it has outperformed all of the world’s major currencies since late 2015. Gold is money and in today's environment it offers a yield that is competitive with all of them. Moreover, while central banks can print... Show More
Can financial markets sustain yesterday’s remarkable rally as the referendum on Britain’s EU membership draws closer? A weekend opinion poll showing the Remain side three points ahead fuelled hopes that Brexit could be avoided. The probability of a Leave vote fell to 22% on the gambling markets, having been 37%... Show More
The USD index (DXY) previously generated a technical top formation in early February 2016 (as highlighted by chart below) which indicated the potential for further downside to occur. The DXY has now completed an upward reversal / closed above key resistance which has generated a technical buy signal. The technical... Show More
Paul Moore, Chief Investment Officer at PM CAPITAL, says they’ve lightened their USD exposure as they now feel the AUD is close to fair value. “We think most of the decline in the Australian Dollar is over. If it had kept in-line with commodity prices it probably had another 10... Show More