A Framework for Understanding Bitcoin

Understanding Bitcoin takes work—part philosophy, part economics, part code. This is the path that helped it finally make sense to me.
Ryan McMillin

Merkle Tree Capital

My Journey Toward Understanding Bitcoin

My path to really starting to understanding Bitcoin didn’t begin with technology or trading. It began with questions about the system itself.

Like many investors, I found Ray Dalio’s Long-Term Debt Cycle thought provoking, the idea that over centuries, economies move through comparable arcs of debt accumulation, monetisation, and eventual restructuring. At the same time, I found Neil Howe and William Strauss’s Fourth Turning” equally compelling and complementary, a generational framework that argues societies pass through recurring seasons of crisis and renewal. These 2 cycles, one economic and one social, align to the same 80-100 year timeframe.

These ideas both suggest that every few generations, the financial and political architecture of the world resets. Eventually, debts become unpayable, institutions lose legitimacy, hyperinflation destroys the old system and new systems emerge.

When I first looked at Bitcoin, I dismissed it as another speculative bubble. But over time, I came to see it differently, not as a “trade,” but as a monetary technology (like coinage) and a response to a predictable hyperinflation of an old monetary order.

Somethings never change, “The refusal of King George to allow the colonies to operate an honest money system, which freed the ordinary man from clutches of the money manipulators was probably the prime cause of the revolution.” Benjamin Franklin.

What Is Money?

To make sense of Bitcoin, you must first contemplate philosophically; What is money?

Money, as ubiquitous as it is, few really understand it, you might consider the U.S. Dollar to be omnipotent, the safest and most globally accepted currency, but around 30% of people still believe it is still backed by gold (it hasn’t been since 1971). Money, like USD, is now ‘fiat’ (Latin for ‘it shall be’), no longer backed by anything but a governments word and fiscal discipline.

Historically, ‘good’ money serves three essential functions:

  1. Medium of exchange: facilitates trade efficiently.
  2. Unit of account: provides a standard to compare value.
  3. Store of value: preserves purchasing power over time.

Throughout history, societies have oscillated between two broad types of monetary systems, commodity money and credit money.

In commodity money systems, value is rooted in something scarce and tangible, typically gold, silver, or another hard asset. The discipline of limited supply keeps governments and financial institutions in check, but it also constrains their ability to respond to crises or fund wars.

In credit money systems, value is based not on scarcity but on trust, the collective belief that debts will be honored and that the issuer remains solvent. Credit systems allow rapid expansion of trade and innovation, but they carry a fatal flaw: they rely on continuous debt creation and political management of money’s value.

Bitcoin combines a digital commodity on the trustless rails (no trusted counterparty is required) of distributed ledger technology, and allows us to ponder should money be separated from the state.

The Flaws of the Current System

When someone says to me bitcoin is a solution looking for a problem, I know they don't know their monetary history very well. Our monetary system is built on inherent fragilities — most notably, fractional reserve banking and a monetary policy that mandates inflation.

Under a fractional reserve system, banks keep only a fraction of deposits in reserve and lend out the rest, effectively creating money out of thin air and leveraging their deposits up to 10 times. Banks lend out money they don't have, multiplying both credit and systemic risk. The model works only as long as public confidence holds; when it doesn’t, bank runs expose how little real liquidity exists beneath the surface.

Enter the Federal Reserve, created in 1913 after a series of bank runs called the Panic of 1907, to backstop this system, a lender of last resort, to provide emergency liquidity when the system inevitably overextends. In other words, its primary purpose was, and remains, to bail out the banks (and the government). Over time, that role expanded to financing government deficits, it wasn’t until the 1970s that mandates like unemployment and inflation targets were added.

The system’s second flaw is conceptual: equating “price stability” with 2% annual inflation. This is not stability — it is an explicit policy of currency debasement, guaranteeing that your purchasing power erodes by at least 2% per year. What began as a tool for short-term economic smoothing has become a structural tax on savers.

Bitcoin is both a payment system (a global, censorship-resistant network for transferring value) and a native asset (its token, BTC). So you should consider it being something like SWIFT with a neutral global currency. That looks a lot like gold, but with one key difference if can by moved over the internet.

The Austrian School and Sound Money

The intellectual foundation for Bitcoin didn’t appear out of thin air in 2008, it lies in the Austrian School of Economics, a tradition that emphasises free markets, individual choice, and the dangers of credit expansion. Thinkers like Friedrich Hayek, Ludwig von Mises, and Murray Rothbard all warned that governments, when given control over money, inevitably abuse it. Had the internet existed in their day they may very well have been our Satoshi Nakamoto.

Hayek described the characteristics of sound money — durability, divisibility, portability, uniformity, scarcity, and acceptability.

Property.                    

    Gold.    

             Fiat.             

         Bitcoin.                   

Durable

❌ (debased)

Divisible

⚪️

Portable

Uniform

Limited supply

Acceptable

✅ (50+ ccy pairs)

Bitcoin satisfies these criteria as well as, or better than, gold and surpasses it in portability, auditability, and resistance to confiscation.

It’s no coincidence that Hayek once mused we would “never have a good money again until we take it out of the hands of government.” Bitcoin is that experiment, a private, voluntary form of money emerging in real time in the digital age.

Recommending Readings:

For those who want to dig deeper, here’s a structured pathway that helped me connect the dots:

  • Understanding Bitcoin by Andreas Antonopoulos — a clear technical explanation of how Bitcoin works and why it’s secure.
  • The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous — a historical and economic argument for why Bitcoin represents a return to sound money.
  • The Price of Time by Edward Chancellor — a sweeping history of interest rates and the distortion of capital over centuries (also recommended by Stanley Druckenmiller).

Together with the white paper, these readings form a bridge between three disciplines: technology, economics, and monetary history. To have a good level of understanding requires a working grasp of all three.

This is a new paradigm, no one, certainly no one I’ve ever spoken to intuitively gets it (I don’t know any of the cypherpunks!), so it does take some reading, but those who put the work in will have the ‘penny drop’ moment, much like the proof of work security and consensus mechanism for the protocol, we too need to ‘do the work’ to understand and therefore have  conviction in the system.

This grounding in blockchain technology will also bring the rest of crypto into the light, which I’ll dive into in the future, i.e. why stablecoins are the bridge between the 2 systems and how tokenisation naturally follows with this technological unlock.  The digital world we are moving to has to be 24/7 not T+2 Mon-Fri circa 7 hours a day.

Thanks for reading and please drop any of your own recommending readings in the comments below. 


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Disclaimer Merkle Tree Capital Pty Ltd (CAR) is a corporate authorised representative of Boutique Capital Pty Ltd (BCPL) AFSL 508011, CAR Number 1293010. CAR is an investment manager of the fund(s) described elsewhere in this document, or in other documentation (Fund). To the extent to which this document contains advice it is general advice only and has been prepared by the CAR for individuals identified as wholesale investors for the purposes of providing a financial product or financial service, under Section 761G or Section 761GA of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). The information herein is presented in summary form and is therefore subject to qualification and further explanation. The information in this document is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and has been prepared without taking into account personal investment objectives, financial circumstances or particular needs. Recipients of this document are advised to consult their own professional advisers about legal, tax, financial or other matters relevant to the suitability of this information. The investment summarised in this document is subject to known and unknown risks, some of which are beyond the control of CAR and their directors, employees, advisers or agents. CAR does not guarantee any particular rate of return or the performance of the Fund, nor does CAR and its directors personally guarantee the repayment of capital or any particular tax treatment. The materials contained herein represent a general summary of CAR’s current portfolio construction approach. CAR is not constrained with respect to any investment decision making methodologies and may vary from them materially at its sole discretion and without prior notice to investors. Depending on market conditions and trends , CAR may pursue other objectives or strategies considered appropriate and in the best interest of portfolio performance. There are risks involved in investing in the CAR’s strategy. All investments carry some level of risk, and there is typically a direct relationship between risk and return. We describe what steps we take to mitigate risk (where possible) in the Fund’s Information Memorandum. It is important to note that despite taking such steps, the CAR cannot mitigate risk completely. This document was prepared as a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or publication or for the use of any third party, without the approval of CAR. Whilst this report is based on information from sources which CAR considers reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Data is not necessarily audited or independently verified. Any opinions reflect CAR’s judgment at this date and are subject to change. CAR has no obligation to provide revised assessments in the event of changed circumstances. To the extent permitted by law, BCPL, CAR and their directors and employees do not accept any liability for the results of any actions taken or not taken on the basis of information in this report, or for any negligent misstatements, errors or omissions. This Document is informational purposes only and is not a solicitation for units in the Fund. Application for units in the Fund can only be made via the Fund’s Information Memorandum and Application Form.

Ryan McMillin
CIO and Co-Founder
Merkle Tree Capital

Ryan McMillin is the Chief Investment Officer and co-founder of Merkle Tree Capital, a specialist digital asset fund manager. With more than 20 years of experience across Australia and the U.K., Ryan has built his career in asset management, hedge...

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