monetary policy

Latest news and analysis on monetary policy

Macro

The RBA marks down the neutral cash rate again

RBA staff have revised down the estimated neutral rate cash rate to c2¾%, although it is not clear if policy-makers take it at face value.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA cuts by 25bp, cautious on more cuts given inflation does not return to the 2½% target

The RBA cut rates, but was cautious in signalling more cuts given underlying inflation is no longer forecast to hit the 2½% target.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA: "no evidence that monetary policy overall is more potent in Australia"

A senior RBA official has acknowledged that there is "no evidence that monetary policy ... is more potent in Australia than ".
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Conflicting messages on policy from the RBA

The RBA thinks rates are at the right level to to return inflation to target, but discussed hiking today and warned on upside risks.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Education

The RBA Board needs renewal and greater independence

The removal of the government's override powers, along with greater economic and financial markets expertise, are badly needed
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

Everything you need to know about today's RBA meeting

The first RBA two-day monetary policy meeting concludes today (Tuesday). For the first time, the Statement on Monetary Policy and forecasts are being released at the...
Jonathan Kearns
Challenger
Macro

The global rebound in house prices narrows as commercial property prices have slumped

The global rebound in house prices has become more narrowly based, while US and European commercial property prices have slumped.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Is Australian monetary policy tight enough?

Inflation has slowed sharply and markets now assume the RBA has slayed the inflation dragon and is pricing the first rate cut by mid-year.
Jonathan Kearns
Challenger
Fixed Income

“Time migration of expectations” as a signal of central bank policy failure

Clive Smith has a closer look at how violation of interest rate parity can be a signal of central bank 'policy failure'.
Clive Smith
Macro

Cash flows and the effectiveness of monetary policy

Higher interest rates have the same estimated effect on inflation in Australia, the euro area, and the USA.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Education

Reflections ahead of Philip Lowe’s last speech

Arguably the most significant lesson is that future Governors should intervene with monetary policy far less than he did.
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Fixed Income

Chart of the Week - Higher for Longer?

This week Central Bankers head to Jackson Hole to discuss structural shifts, long-term bond yields are going to be a key topic of interest..
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Macro

Why the RBA's August pause doesn't rule out another hike in September

Will Governor Phil Lowe go out with a bang with just one meeting left in his tenure?
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

What’s driving inflation and what does it mean for monetary policy?

There has been an argument in recent months suggesting corporate profits are driving inflation. In this wire, I'll argue why that's wrong.
Jonathan Kearns
Challenger
Macro

History points to the risk of tight monetary policy

Past rate hike cycles have seen tight monetary policy to control inflation.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The RBA hikes again & signals the risk of more to come

The RBA is worried by high inflation and wants to anchor expectations.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Bank competition, the incomplete pass-through of the cash rate & loan payments

Mortgage rates have risen by less than the cash rate, although there has still been a substantial increase in loan payments.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The RBA strongly signals a pause in April

The RBA will consider pausing in raising rates at its April board meeting.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Cost-push or demand-pull inflation?

The RBA is fighting inflation with higher rates but how effective will it be without suitable fiscal policy support?
John Abernethy
Clime Asset Management
The Rules of Investing

Alan Kohler: We're in for a recession we didn't need to have

The RBA could've paused, but it didn't. And this will be the consequence.
The Rules of Investing
Livewire Markets
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