monetary policy

Roger Montgomery

Is the next US downturn years away, or just around the corner? Either way, leading US economist, Professor Jeffrey Frankel, says it will be severe. And the reason, he says, is the Trump administration’s relentless pursuit of fiscal expansion and financial deregulation. Show More

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Livewire Exclusive

With tectonic plates shifting under the markets, we got in touch with three leading economists to get their number one chart in markets today. First up, Cameron Kusher, Principal at CoreLogic, tells us what the market’s been missing in residential housing. Next, Alex Joiner, Chief Economist at IFM Investors, looks... Show More

Aberdeen Standard Investments

Over the past 18 months, the term ‘Goldilocks’ has increasingly been used to describe the global economic climate – neither too ‘hot’ to cause rampant inflation, nor too ‘cold’ to fall into recession. In such an environment, interest rates can remain low. This happy set of circumstances has been positive... Show More

Callum Thomas

I spent a lot of time in the 2017 End of Year Special Edition looking back across the year, covering some of my best charts and calls (and some of the worst!). But this article provides a look at the most important part of that report. Show More

Cameron Rae

Each week we produce a topical piece on what economic factors are driving the markets in Australia. Our senior economist Stephen Roberts also produces a podcast where he discusses these topics in greater detail. You can listen to Steve's dulcet tones HERE. Show More

Cameron Rae

We are changing our view of Australia’s interest rate outlook essentially pushing out by six months the first RBA cash rate hike to August 2018 from February previously. The main reason why we are changing our rate forecasts is that it looks as if it may take longer for local... Show More

Cameron Rae

Last week we referred to international forecasting agencies and several central banks starting to consider that inflation may make a cyclical come-back over the next year or two. Yet in Australia most forecasters still see only slow and modest lift in local inflation at most over the next two years.... Show More

Cameron Rae

At the latest combined meeting of the IMF and World Bank the heads of the world’s major central banks seemed close to agreeing that the global economic recovery is entrenched and that inflation is unlikely to stay low for much longer. It was the clearest warning so far that the... Show More

Cameron Rae

Australian households are on average better off than they have ever been mostly because of the large increases in household wealth over recent years and a low unemployment rate closing in on what might be considered the “full-employment” unemployment rate. Yet in this age of comparative plenty the household sector... Show More

Livewire Exclusive

As global rates start to rise, Australia may follow in the short-term, but structural issues will prevent the RBA from hiking rates far, explains Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics. Any rate-hikes from the RBA will be short-lived, he says, and those structural issues will force Australian rates to zero. Show More

Marcus Tuck

One of most reliable early warning indicators of an impending equity bear market is the shape of the US yield curve. When short-term interest rates are higher than long bond yields, it is a sign that monetary policy is tight enough to choke off growth in the economy and company... Show More

Clime Asset Management

The first half of FY2017 has certainly delivered some unexpected outcomes - Donald Trump's election as the 45th President of the United States and the following positive market reaction stunned the world. Amidst the resulting volatility in bond and equity markets lies a wealth of opportunity for those who care... Show More

Callum Thomas

The below chart appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes http://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2016/11/25/Weekly-Macro-Themes---25-November-2016 and shows the well known US Dollar Index (or DXY) vs the average 10-year government bond yield differential across the G10 currencies. There appears to be a pretty clear relationship between the interest differential indicator and... Show More