monetary policy

What to expect from a combination of US tax cuts and Fed tightening

Peter Wilmshurst

2017 saw a combination of solid economic growth without a significant pick-up in inflation. This let the Fed continue to raise rates, but at a measured pace, and it has flagged it’s likely to raise rates another three times this year. Other major central banks did not follow this path... Show More

Inflation Watch

Cameron Rae

At the latest combined meeting of the IMF and World Bank the heads of the world’s major central banks seemed close to agreeing that the global economic recovery is entrenched and that inflation is unlikely to stay low for much longer. It was the clearest warning so far that the... Show More

Prices, policy, Amazon, and Thomas Hobbes – how are they connected and why should I care?

Robert Swift

Capitalism works because companies are free to enter and leave businesses. Labour is also free to move from one activity to another. Returns on capital, human and physical, are then mean reverting in that more competition and capital enter attractive businesses and vice versa. The modern version involves government regulation... Show More

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The Dawn of a New Era of Value Investing

Clime Asset Management

The first half of FY2017 has certainly delivered some unexpected outcomes - Donald Trump's election as the 45th President of the United States and the following positive market reaction stunned the world. Amidst the resulting volatility in bond and equity markets lies a wealth of opportunity for those who care... Show More

US Dollar Strength - Overhyped and Overvalued... but Justified

Callum Thomas

The below chart appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes http://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2016/11/25/Weekly-Macro-Themes---25-November-2016 and shows the well known US Dollar Index (or DXY) vs the average 10-year government bond yield differential across the G10 currencies. There appears to be a pretty clear relationship between the interest differential indicator and... Show More