A US recession on the horizon
Harry Colvin, Director & Senior Economist at Longview Economics, has some serious concerns about the state of the US and global economies. “CapEx is shrinking, global earnings are shrinking, manufacturing globally is broadly in recession. There’s weakness spreading from emerging markets across the world and it’s feeding back into the US economy.” The culmination of all these issues is an obvious one: recession. “We’re looking for a mild recession, not something like 08-09, something more like 2001 or 1990. A mild, shallow recession, but with that, of course, a bear market in equities, which in our view has already begun.” Similarly, they expect to see outperformance of the defensive parts of the risk spectrum. Watch the full video below for more detail, including how wages growth is doing more harm than good.