recession

Latest news and analysis on recession

Macro

Indebted companies and the rate-pause consensus

This week’s edition begins with an assessment of global futures markets, indicating that the “rate pause” is assumed around the world.
Macrobond Financial
Asset Allocation

4 actions to take right now to protect your investments against recession

The Fed and RBA have hiked rates aggressively. This almost always means recession. Here are some actions to take to protect your portfolio.
Isaac Poole
Oreana Financial Services
Macro

Australian recession not to be disregarded

Composite leading indicators suggest that a contraction or recession in Australia should not be disregarded (by Siwat Nakmai, Economist).
Macrobond Financial
Macro

Watching the NBER’s six recession indicators as US growth confounds the skeptics

We created a dashboard to monitor employment, spending and more.
Macrobond Financial
Macro

Interest rates: lower and sooner?

Will the mantra of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates be superseded by ‘lower and sooner'?
Kiryll Prakapenka
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

Australia's Rate Surprise

Key Points: • Australia is at, or close to the end, of the fastest monetary policy tightening cycle since the late 1980s. • Every economic cycle is unique, but most...
Alex Cathcart
Drummond Capital Partners
Macro

Growth at a reasonable yield - GARY Top 10: September 2023

As we navigate the ever-evolving landscape of investment, data-driven strategies are emerging as the compass to navigate the challenges posed by rising bond yields,...
ANN
ASB
ASX
+7
Mathan Somasundaram
Deep Data Analytics
Education

How we prepare for – and profit from – recessions

We’ve outperformed over the long term by being conservatively contrarian during booms and aggressively contrarian during busts.
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Asset Allocation

How you can build portfolio resilience through options and bonds

The economic expansion is long in the tooth. Equity valuations are stretched. Downside risks are growing. It is time to build resilience.
Isaac Poole
Oreana Financial Services
Macro

Back from the brink

US activity continues to surprise to the upside, with stronger GDP and a resilient US consumer pushing back recession fears, for now.
Sebastian Mullins
Schroders
Macro

Pushing out the recession call

We pushed back our recession call to the end of 2023 or first quarter of 2024, despite our US recession probability model remaining high.
Mihkel Kase
Schroders
Macro

Are Australia and the US heading for severe recessions?

Their money supply’s shrinking and yield curves have inverted. This confluence of events always precedes slumps; can this time be different?
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Asset Allocation

Why you should add government bonds to your portfolio now

Higher yields and a slowing economy have skewed the outlook for US Treasury returns to a very positive setting.
Isaac Poole
Oreana Financial Services
Equities

The Magnificent Seven – how they got here and where will they go?

The "Magnificent Seven," has accounted for a staggering 95% of market gains. Let's delve into the why and how and explore what lies ahead.
+2
Sally Fang
Swell Asset Management
Macro

Why you should sell equities and buy government bonds now

With central banks near the end of the hiking cycle, it is time to sell equities and buy bonds. Lock in income and protection while you can.
Isaac Poole
Oreana Financial Services
Fixed Income

Has the recession already begun?

The contrast couldn’t be starker. In Q1, 2023 the US economy grew at 1.3% on an annualised basis. Forecasts for Q2 are lower but still positive. Next week, we get...
Andrew Canobi
Franklin Templeton
Macro

Should we be in a recession already?

We have been optimistic about the prospects for equities this year despite fears of recession. And even though investors have listed a deeply inverted U.S. Treasury...
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

High inflation, low unemployment signal a high risk of US recession

High inflation and unsustainably low unemployment echo the inverted yield curve in signalling a high risk of a US recession.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Asset Allocation

5 ways to prepare your portfolio for an uncertain interest rate path

Pause, skip or hike? The US Fed's near-term path remains uncertain. And that leaves downside risk for investors in US equities.
Isaac Poole
Oreana Financial Services
Investment Theme

Why the recent US turmoil is a storm in a bean (counter's) cup

Analysis of the recent US bank turmoil indicates the issue is contained to smaller banks, which comprise less than 3% of the system.
Steven Glass
Pella Funds Management
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