recession

There is an odd stat that will haunt a few… the S&P 500 was down -3.2% last night. Now there have only been 3 other years where the market has a -3% in December. 1987,...

Looking at news headlines, there seems to be a growing consensus of an impending recession by 2020. To support this view, many have pointed towards a flattening yield...

10 years into the recovery, and with valuations close to or at historical highs, there’s little denying that we’re getting late in the cycle. However, Amit Lodha,...

Much has been made over whether the flattening of the yield curve is signalling an increased risk of recession in the US. Yet the key is not whether the yield curve...

For years now, many have told us that Australia is heading for an imminent recession. By contrast official forecasts have long been looking for several years of above...

When a young Charlie Jamieson arrived at work in London on September 11th, 2001, little did he know how much that day would affect his views on markets. At the time,...

A group of factors that supported the equity bull market for almost a decade, including excess liquidity, low volatility, and low rates, are now unwinding in a...

In response to the calamity caused by the GFC, interest rates were cut to near zero and we doubled the amount of debt outstanding. Fast forward and interest rates are...

The US economic expansion has just become the second longest on record. If it continues beyond mid-2019, it will be number one. Its longevity is probably due to a...

The prospect of a trade war has become more significant again. While China may fare worse than the US in this scenario, there are some broader implications that could...

Australia has just celebrated 26 years without a recession and the Government as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are cheering the ongoing growth. In fact,...

Back in 2007, a US economist called Edward E. Leemer published a paper entitled “Housing IS the business cycle”. In this paper he studied the causes of every US...

GDP surprised to the downside in the September quarter; despite consensus expectations of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth, the actual result was -0.5%. According...

In 2016 the local index was held ransom by a run of unpredictable political and macro economic events. The ASX200 climbed an unremarkable (but tidy) 7%, which belies...