recession

US activity continues to surprise to the upside, with stronger GDP and a resilient US consumer pushing back recession fears, for now.

We pushed back our recession call to the end of 2023 or first quarter of 2024, despite our US recession probability model remaining high.

Their money supply’s shrinking and yield curves have inverted. This confluence of events always precedes slumps; can this time be different?

Higher yields and a slowing economy have skewed the outlook for US Treasury returns to a very positive setting.

The "Magnificent Seven," has accounted for a staggering 95% of market gains. Let's delve into the why and how and explore what lies ahead.

With central banks near the end of the hiking cycle, it is time to sell equities and buy bonds. Lock in income and protection while you can.

The contrast couldn’t be starker. In Q1, 2023 the US economy grew at 1.3% on an annualised basis. Forecasts for Q2 are lower but still positive. Next week, we get...

We have been optimistic about the prospects for equities this year despite fears of recession. And even though investors have listed a deeply inverted U.S. Treasury...

High inflation and unsustainably low unemployment echo the inverted yield curve in signalling a high risk of a US recession.

Pause, skip or hike? The US Fed's near-term path remains uncertain. And that leaves downside risk for investors in US equities.

Analysis of the recent US bank turmoil indicates the issue is contained to smaller banks, which comprise less than 3% of the system.

The sharpest increase in US interest rates in 40 years, a shrinking money supply and bank failures are all causes for concern – but the markets don’t seem to think so....

Yes, yes, I get they are cheap. But when, if ever, will small caps start working? Midway through what’s looking like another year of small-cap underperformance, that’s...

The Australian REIT sector continued its rollercoaster ride of performance, delivering a +5.2% return in April, after the RBA’s pause in rates at 3.60%.The unexpected...

Markets love a narrative. But the host of competing narratives leaves equities exposed to downside risk. Remain defensive to manage risk.

Most experts rule out a soft-landing recession, including those at ClearBridge Investments. Here's why and what investments to look at.

Defensive large caps are beginning to look awfully crowded, but that doesn't mean you can't find resilience in the small end of the market.

Let’s jump back in time to 1997 when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was just about to make a horrible policy error.

History is against the Fed as a credit crunch looms in the US economy. Now is the time to prepare portfolios against the coming correction.

A prospective credit crunch now makes a US recession more likely than not - and that leaves short-dated government bonds attractive.