recession

The rally in 10-year bond yields over the past six months has seen the spread differential between 10-year and 3-month bond yields fall to -30 basis points....

The bond market is often seen as the most accurate indicator of what lies ahead for an economy, or at least what investors believe lies ahead. If the current gyrations...

Recent stock market volatility and fixed income market extremes have presented equity and fixed income investors alike, with one of the most challenging and complex...

The recent inversion of the US yield curve has seen many interpreting this as the harbinger of a recession in 2020. Though such an inversion is a sign that investors...

The decline in US interest rates by the Federal Reserve to combat the GFC has left a mark on the investment landscape and triggered the rise of a new bubble – the...

In previous posts, I’ve discussed our reasoning for why we believe the global economy is in the later stages of the business cycle. The next part of the cycle is a...

The consensus outlook for the US economy has become increasingly fearful in recent months. In particular, the bears point to renewed trade war concerns, which have...

Earlier this year, IBM unveiled the first ever commercial quantum computer. In quantum processing, unlike the binary code programming of older computers, something can...

With the correct set of risk management practices and quantitative investment analysis, returns north of 50% can be generated from recessionary global events. For a...

In the last edition of our Hype Cycle publication on 9 January 2019 we had to put ashes on our head for not having warned of the correction in the fourth quarter 2018....

During his recent visit to Sydney, Kevin Charleston, Chairman, President and CEO of Loomis Sayles & Company, a Boston-based asset manager with $250 billion under...

Buying undervalued stocks is traditionally the way investors seek to deliver returns over the long term. At Vega Capital, we utilise a differentiated way of looking at...

With the Easter and Anzac period upon us, for some holiday reading, we’ve rounded up and summarised a baker’s dozen of the top wires of 2019 so far, including some of...

Buffett’s famous “Rule 1” of investing is straightforward; don’t lose money. But 10 years into the current business cycle, with unemployment and interest rates at...

U.S. consumer confidence is high, unemployment is well below historical averages, while supply constraints mean that plenty of jobs are now within reach for many...

Let’s start by reviewing what the yield curve actually is. Consider a range of durations for government notes, for example, you can have 3-month notes, 1-year notes,...

The negative effects of ALP policies on housing, SMSFs and profit margins are already impacting certain sectors of the market, such as banks, residential property...

Much has been made of Australia’s nearly 28 years without a recession. Despite many seeing recession as inevitable in response to the 1997 Asian crisis, the 2000-2003...

Chris Watling, CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, recently sounded the recession alarm on the Australian economy. We had the chance to sit down...

Australian bond yields declined rapidly over the December quarter, anticipating a major slowdown in the Australian and global economy. Real estate has a correlation to...