Almost everyone seems to bullish short-term. VIX backs this up which suggests there's a fair bit of investor apathy out there at present. Yes, Q4 has the highest winning percentage and average gain for the ASX 200, but it's hard to see further gains from here in the short-term. In my view the market is priced for perfection - China's economy is only going to accelerate, the Fed will be pump-priming until at least Q2 2014 and the RBA may even cut again should tomorrow's CPI data allow. The only problem with this is that this scenario is hard to achieve, let alone hold, for any substantial period of time. With the markets already expecting this outcome, it's clear that risks are to the downside. It isn't being priced effectively thanks to ample central bank liquidity and exists in droves across almost every asset class at present.
David is a Director of Scutt Partners Pty Ltd and has successfully worked in the financial services markets over the past 12 years with both large and smaller banking groups. He has provided strategic financial analysis for currency and interest...
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