The performance of Shanghai Composite Index is lagging the US market by a massive 30% so far this year. Mary Manning says this divergence is extreme when compared to the ‘economic reality’ of the trade tariffs. She describes two scenarios both of which she believes would provide a positive catalyst... Show More
On my last trip to China, we were a little cautious despite the optimism displayed by China’s primary industries — a flow on from the stimulus-led recovery of 2016. Our caution proved warranted. Money supply tightened and key macro indicators weakened, which hit bulks in particular. This time around there... Show More
All major value equity indices show that the last five years, and in particular the last 12 months, have been a challenge for value as a style. If we look at any relative valuations or relative performance between value and growth in Australia, globally or the US, we see that... Show More
Food Revolution Group (FOD), trading at 9.5c, the producer of all-Australian juices, fibres and “infused fruits” is getting serious about China, having entered a distribution deal with Daigou channel Health More. Show More
What would you nominate as the most under-appreciated risk in the market today? There seems to have been an endless carousel of macro ‘bogeymen’, yet markets keep inching higher. So which risks really matter, and which ones have investors overlooked? Show More
So far, 2018 has been a difficult year for emerging market (EM) assets, which in the last few months have fared significantly worse than their counterparts in developed markets. This has been due mainly to worldwide issues but also country-specific political uncertainty. Many investors are now asking if the sell-off... Show More
Ah currencies. Just how important are they? Many pretend to understand, but are quickly confused. Even US presidents. I particularly like this exchange between President Nixon and his Chief of Staff, Haldeman: Show More
When it comes to Australia, our view within the equities team is one of cautious optimism. What many investors don’t know is that Australia’s economy is heavily reliant on China. In fact, we believe the country’s dependence on China as a trading partner and as a major influence on commodity... Show More
In many countries around the world, July is a month of temporary migration among the populace. On the one hand, offices are quieter, and the roads less congested. On the other hand, railway stations and airports are thronged with people. Yes, the holiday season has begun! Show More
Over the past few weeks, you may have noticed President Trump’s rhetoric has centred around trade and resulted in the escalation of tensions between the US and other economic powers of the world. Many investors are wondering what downside risk they might be exposed to and whether a recession is... Show More
We have passed the sweet spot in this business cycle, where easy monetary conditions and synchronised growth pushed share markets higher. We are transitioning into a more challenging phase, as China and Emerging Markets (EM) decouple and we are left with a US economy at risk of overheating. Show More
From my initial visits to China in the early part of last decade, one element which stood out was the sheer scale of the industrial economy and the implications which a market of that size had on domestic manufacturing and industrial companies. In the construction equipment sector in 2005 it... Show More
Once upon a time it was said that all roads lead to Rome but today it’s probably more suitable to say they lead to China, both figuratively and literally. The last decade in China has witnessed a meaningful transformation from fixed asset investment towards consumption. Prior to 2008, the economy... Show More
Hard landing? Not even close. China's GDP growth is stabilising. The country is riding on the dual trends of a growing tech and consumer culture. From almost nowhere, its private companies are becoming world-beaters in high-growth tech sectors, from smartphones to civilian drones, e-commerce to ride-sharing. Show More
Chinese stocks are now trading below the level they were in 2015 when they caused major global uncertainty and a massive uptick in volatility after they lost 30% in a few short weeks. Show More
In late May, people in Europe were blocked from US news sites such as the Los Angeles Times. Others couldn’t turn on connected lights with mobiles unless they agreed to new terms of service. While that might sound standard, Tumblr users faced 322 questions to answer on how the blogging... Show More
When considering where the global credit cycle is at, it’s often easy to form a view based on a handful of recent articles, statistics and anecdotes. The most memorable of these tend to be either very positive or negative otherwise they wouldn’t be published or would be quickly forgotten. A... Show More
Catherine Yeung, Investment Director at Fidelity International, comments that clients often ask her what’s happening on the ground in China and whether the journey is actually intact? She answers this question in this presentation, concluding to say that: “It’s very hard to imagine not having a suitable allocation to the... Show More
China might seem like an unlikely candidate for innovation as it is traditionally better known for contract or original equipment manufacturing. However, with its natural advantage of a vast talent pool, financing and market access, China has most of the ingredients needed to transform into the “Silicon Valley of the... Show More
Gold prices have steadied in the last few trading days, after correcting over the last month in the face of a rallying USD, and a sharp unwind in speculative positions. Show More
