Are we running out of gold?

In our previous post, we explained why gold mine production typically lags the gold price and we discussed the possibility that production will plateau over the coming years. A key reason for this is that the new gold mining projects are getting harder to discover, due mainly to geopolitical instability in many prospective regions; lengthening development timelines amid protracted permitting processes for environmental and social licenses; rising capital costs; and complicated project financing in remote areas.

• Are we approaching a structural shortage of mineable gold?
• If not, when can a meaningful supply response be expected?
• Should any major discoveries be found, will they suppress the gold price?
• Could gold supply be manipulated?

Will we eventually run out of gold?

First, we are not likely to run out of gold supply. There are two major parts to supply: recycled gold and mined gold. While mined gold may be plateauing as noted previously, recycled gold supply comes from various sectors. As shown in Figure 1 below, total above-ground gold amounts to 219,891t. And because gold is virtually indestructible, almost all of it is available to come back to the market under certain market conditions. For instance, when the gold price is high, it may trigger sellbacks of gold jewellery from consumers and more industrial recycling – factors that are far more responsive to price than mined gold production.

Metals Focus estimates that there are 54,770t of gold reserves by the end of 2025, i.e. the portion of an ore deposit that can be economically extracted under conditions as of 2025, whereas the US Geological Survey (USGS) data estimates gold reserves to be around 64,000t.

There is a common misconception that proven gold reserves can only last ~15 years at the 2025 rate of production. But it is important to note that estimates of below-ground reserves have remained stable for decades even as gold is being continually mined out.

This stability is explained by several factors, which will likely continue:

• Lower-grade deposits once unprofitable become economically viable – in other words, they move from resources to reserves as the gold price increases
• More gold is discovered, albeit at a slower pace. When a gold deposit is discovered, sufficient reserves are drilled out to justify the project construction.[2] But as some of the deposit depletes, further exploration often takes place, keeping total resources relatively stable.
• Often when a mine is built and brought into production, exploration geologists start to look for near-to-mine resources (often small deposits, sometimes known as satellite deposits), that can supplement reserves.

In conclusion, while there is a slim possibility that we run out of “easy” and “cheap” gold to mine – if all discoveries stopped, technological advancement and a price that is high enough could see gold extracted from previously unfeasible supply sources.

Changes to gold production are normally only reflected in changes to the price over the long term; any immediate impact will likely be mild. First, any new discovery is unlikely to be large enough to move the needle. Based on data from Metals Focus, the Muruntau mine in Uzbekistan was the largest in the world in 2024, producing 65t of gold during that year. But compared to the world total of 3,650t, it is small (Figure 2). Second, as we previously noted, any new discovery is likely to take more than a decade to be explored, permitted, built and ramped up to full production. The market will have had time to absorb the news and may gradually price in such expectations, making little impact in the short term.

Is it possible for gold producers to collectively impact mined gold supply?

Second, the gold mining industry is globally diverse and its concentration ratio is low. The top ten gold producers accounted for 27% of total global production. It would be difficult to persuade all gold miners to act collectively, not to mention ASGM supply, which accounted for around 20% of the global total in 2024, based on our estimate[6]; these ASGM sources are even less likely to be responsive to attempts to constrain production. Lastly, monopolistic actions, such as co-ordinating production cuts across the gold industry, are illegal in many jurisdictions.[7]

Despite higher gold prices, mined gold production has grown only modestly, raising questions about long‑term sustainability. While the risk that we run out of “easy” reserve appears limited, technological advances and a gold price that is high enough should help unlock currently uneconomic supply. And sizeable above‑ground stocks – though not all readily accessible – can supplement mine output when conditions allow, supporting overall supply stability.

Co-authored by Ray Jia, Research Head APAC ex India, World Gold Council.