ASX 200 to bounce off 12-month lows, S&P 500 higher + Why easy EV sales are over

ASX 200 futures are trading 29 points higher, up 0.42% as of 8:30 am AEST.

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S&P 500 SESSION CHART

MARKETS

• ASX 200 set to bounce from 12-month lows
• S&P 500 higher, finished a bit off best levels, breaks three-day losing streak
• Relatively uneventful session ahead of a busy macro week including Fed, BoJ and BoE interest rate decisions, US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, US jobs report and the second week of Q3 earnings which features 162 S&P results
• Oil prices fell around 3% as fears of a wider Middle East conflict eased
• Goldman Sachs says the tightening of its financial conditions index since August has been the equivalent to 75 bps worth of Fed rate hikes
• Strategists cut year-end S&P target given geopolitical and rate risks (Bloomberg)
• Yen hits highest level in 3 weeks on reports BoJ may raise cap on yields (Bloomberg)
• Millennials prefer bond ETFs even more than boomers (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• UAW extends GM strike following Stellantis strike resolution (Reuters)
• Tesla shares tumbles as Bernstein reiterates Underperform, says FY24 estimates remain ‘too high’ (Investing.com)
• iPhone 15 falls short of predecessor in Chinese market (Bloomberg)
• Apple aims to leverage new computer sales with latest Mac lineup (Bloomberg)
• X valued at US$19bn in new employee stock plan (Fortune)
• Western Digital announces 2-way split after pressure from Elliott Management (FT)
• CVS and Walgreens pharma staff launch 3-day strike (Reuters)
• McDonald's and Chipotle raise prices in California to offset fast food wages (CNBC)

KEY EARNINGS

• Q3 S&P 500 blended earnings growth rate currently sits at 2.7%, above the -0.3% expected at the beginning of earnings season
• 78% have topped consensus EPS expectations, above the 74% one-year average
• Earnings are coming out 7.7% ahead of expectations, better than the 4.4% one-year average
• Companies with positive earnings surprises have seen an average share price decrease of 1% two days before the earnings release through to two days after, according to FactSet
• The above suggests companies are being punished for both beats and misses
• Companies with negative earnings surprises have seen an average price decrease of 5.2% over the same period as above

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed expected to hold rates at 22-year high but leave hikes on the table (FT)
• Yen set for big swing as BOJ discusses its next step (FT)
• ECB's Simkus says central bank unlikely to lift rates for rest of year (Bloomberg)
• BoE seen keeping rates unchanged as inflationary pressures remain strong (FT)

ECONOMY

• German inflation comes in cooler than expected (Reuters)
• German economic contraction better than feared (Bloomberg)
• Australia Sept retail sales climb at fastest pace in 8 months (Reuters)
• World Bank warns crude could rise to US$150 if Middle East conflict escalates (FT)

Yield Curve Control and Inflation Expectations

Two central banks over the next two weeks will probably dominate the most attention. And no, I'm not talking about the Federal Reserve as traders already expect a 97% chance of a hold.

#1 The Bank of Japan will hand down its decision some time today and everyone has one question in mind - Will they finally move the needle on yield curve control?

To cut a very long story short, Japan has been using this unconventional form of monetary policy since 2016 and often out of lockstep with the rest of the world. You can read more about that here.

The Bank has recently allowed the 10-year yield, once capped at a very hard 0.5% limit, to move gradually to a higher level of 1.0%. Markets have tested the Bank's ability for many months now to hold this 1% threshold and avoid the "normalisation" debate (i.e. eliminating negative interest rates).

And when it couldn't sell off more Japanese government bonds (JGBs), it's tested the Bank through the Yen-US Dollar cross-rate. That cross-rate is at 30+ year lows and is actually a big reason why Japanese equities have done so well this year.

So now, the big question is will they move YCC again or will they eliminate it altogether?

If it's the latter, then a huge move is coming for bond and currency markets - which in turn affect equities. If it's the former, then the world's longest cat-and-mouse game will continue with a near-US$5 trillion balance sheet on the line.

One thing is for sure: The BoJ is conducting an incredibly unconventional policy while US Treasury yields are at ~5% and Aussie yields are not far away from this figure. If yields become more attractive in Japan, investors there may take their money out of overseas markets and bring their cash back home. Unwinding super-easy policy in a major market like Japan has huge implications for other markets like Australia and all asset classes.

#2 Meanwhile, in Australia: Q3 CPI came in hot last week. It was hot enough that I had to stop my holiday in Canada to look at it! And while every economist and their dog was busy changing their forecasts from hold to 25bps hike, this is the chart that really caught my eye.

The RBA has consistently talked about how important it is to anchor medium-term inflation expectations. Compressed expectations help with psychology which will help with getting inflation back to that 2-3% target.

The only problem? This chart shows that inflation expectations are now at their highest in more than a decade. If the RBA takes this seriously, it may end up hiking rates next week. The breakout in inflation expectations also coincides with a breakdown in the ASX 200, which closed at a fresh 12-month low on Monday.

Easy EV Sales Are Over

The lithium sector might be experiencing a wave of M&A activity (which is buoying valuations). However, it's a very different story at the end of the supply chain where downstream players are struggling to turn a profit and EV manufacturers are shifting their focus from volume to profitability.

Here are some of my key takeaways from recent company earnings.

• Losses continue to mount: “We also remain bullish on Model e and our EV future, but clearly, the market is a moving target … our EV start-up incurred US$1.3 billion of losses in the quarter, reflecting continued investment in our next-generation products and a more challenging market.” – Ford CEO Jim Farley
• By the numbers: Ford lost around US$36,000 for every EV it sold in the third quarter
• EV demand falling short: “EV demand is not materialising quite as robustly as we were expecting this year. Pricing is a little bit down. Costs are going to be up with labor. So, I mean, you know, as you mentioned, EVs are going to become more challenging going forward.” – BofA analyst John Murphy
• Oversaturation: “You know, EVs are still in high demand. It's just, as you said, the pricing is much lower, and there's a lot of overcapacity in the middle of the market.” – Ford CEO Jim Farley's reply
• Dialing down production: "Given the dynamic EV environment, we are being judicious about our production and adjusting future capacity to better match market demand.” – Ford CFO John Lawler
• Profitability not volume:"We are also moderating the acceleration of EV production in North America to protect our pricing, adjust to slower near-term growth in demand, and implement engineering efficiency and other improvements that will make our vehicles less expensive to produce, and more profitable.” – General Motors CEO Mary Barra
• Tesla’s third quarter revenues rose 9% year-on-year, marking the company’s slowest growth rate since Q2 2020. Net income tumbled 44% to US$1.85 billion as operating margins tumbled 1,000 bps to 7.6% as a result of deep price cuts.
• Ganfeng, one of the world's largest lithium producers said its Q3 net profit slumped 97.88% compared to last year.

The bottom line: It’s pretty hard to maintain a bullish near-term stance on lithium if the end market is struggling.

KEY EVENTS