At NAOS we find The Citi Economic Surprise Index a useful leading indicator when looking at Australian and offshore markets

At NAOS we find The Citi Economic Surprise Index a useful leading indicator when looking at Australian and offshore markets. The index tracks actual economic data relative to consensus forecasts of market economists. In looking at the index specific to China it is now back at GFC low levels, meaning economic data has surprised on the downside as manufacturing PMI, PPI and loan growth continue to disappoint. The Eurozone specific index shows improved stability, which is no surprise with EU consumer confidence reaching highs not seen since 2011. Following weaker than expected data during the winter months, the US specific index has bounced off recent lows as US consumer confidence reaches 9 month highs during April. The Australian index shows continued strength & stability built around the foundations of a low interest rate environment, in our view this will continue to drive our markets over the medium term. (VIEW LINK)