Brokers' top picks for October

If September was about digesting reporting season, October is about catalysts. 

Several brokers have refreshed their top calls with a focus on digital payments, housing demand, data centres, and corporate transformation agendas.

Here’s a look at what Bell Potter, Morgan Stanley, Citi, and Macquarie see as the most compelling ideas this month.

BELL POTTER'S IDEAS

Bell Potter’s October calls span three sectors - payments infrastructure, resources, and software - each with clear catalysts.

Cuscal (ASX: CCL) – payments backbone outside the big four

Cuscal is the go-to provider of digital payments infrastructure for mutual banks and fintechs. With mobile wallets now accounting for 51% of debit card transactions and M&A activity heating up among smaller banks, Bell Potter sees strong growth prospects.

"We expect contract wins and capability uplift to drive above system growth, reflecting its ownership of key assets. Modest operating leverage through scale then gets us to low double digit NPAT growth. This is augmented by the acquisition of Indue which is expected to derive run-rate cost synergies of +$15-20m from FY29," Bell Potter says.

The broker rates Cuscal a Buy, and raised its 12-month price target to $4.60, from $4.50 previously.

Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) – lithium leverage and services stability

For Mineral Resources, FY26 is framed as a pivotal year. The company is ramping up iron ore sales at Onslow, while its lithium portfolio provides upside leverage if markets recover.

“The ramp-up of Onslow iron ore sales will support improved cash flows and balance sheet deleveraging. MIN is strategically positioned to benefit from a recovery in lithium markets, with around 450ktpa (SC6 attributable) of offline spodumene production capacity. MIN’s mining services platform delivers a stable, recurring earnings stream that is expected to expand with internal and third-party volume growth," Bell Potter says.

The broker rates MinRes a Buy, and raised its 12-month price target by a whopping 35% to $40.

Qoria (ASX: QOR) – SaaS name approaching Rule of 40

Bell Potter initiated on Qoria with a Buy rating and a $0.90 target, calling it a software company at an inflection point.

“In our view Qoria is at or around an inflection point with the company expecting to become free cash flow positive in FY26. The FY26 guidance also suggests Qoria expects to achieve the Rule of 40 for the first time with revenue growth of 20% or more and an underlying EBITDA margin above 20%," the broker says.

Catalysts include the October and January quarterlies, traditionally strong periods thanks to back-to-school demand in the northern hemisphere and festive-season momentum. 

Generation Development Group (ASX: GDG) - New core holding

As part of its Core Portfolio changes, the broker said it added Generation Development Group at a 2% weight, while concurrently removing HUB24 (ASX: HUB). 

Bell Potter cites GDG’s exposure to structural superannuation and managed account growth, margin expansion from the Evidentia acquisition, and diversified revenue streams spanning investment bonds, Lonsec research, and managed accounts.

“We see GDG at the beginning of a multi-year growth runway, with FY25 marking a transformative year through the successful integration of Lonsec and the strategic acquisition of Evidentia. GDG’s revenue model is inflow-driven rather than overly reliant on market performance, insulating earnings from volatility relative to peers," the broker says.

Morgan Stanley's ideas

Stockland (ASX: SGP) & GemLife (ASX: GLF) – “investors are back”

Morgan Stanley’s 8th AlphaWise Household Survey painted the most bullish picture yet for residential property sentiment. With 77% of respondents expecting prices to rise (average +5.7% over the next year), the broker argues demand for detached homes and townhouses will lift volumes, and benefit A-REITs with residential real estate exposure.

Specifically, Morgan Stanley is:

• Overweight Stockland (SGP, PT $6.90): best leveraged to detached housing demand.

• Overweight GemLife (GLF, PT $5.40): a beneficiary of renewed investor interest.

• Equal-weight Mirvac (MGR, PT $2.40): apartment demand still lagging, but upside if investor participation keeps building.

“Investor intentions to buy almost doubled this year (55% of responses in 2025, vs 35% in 2024); we think higher activity in this segment will sustain the next leg of resi sales in FY26," Morgan Stanley says.

The broker also flagged the expanded First Home Guarantee (5% deposits) as a meaningful policy tailwind for transaction volumes through FY26.

ANZ (ASX: ANZ) – Potential re-rate on 13 October

Separately, Morgan Stanley has tagged ANZ as a “catalyst-driven idea” ahead of its CEO Strategy Update on 13 October.

The event is expected to unveil medium-term financial targets alongside a productivity agenda. Morgan Stanley’s base case is that the new CEO Nuno Matos will announce the following targets:

“We think confirmation of ROE and CTI targets would [be] welcomed by investors and more clarity on cost savings would see consensus 1–2 year forward ROE estimates move to 10–10.5% and support current multiples," Morgan Stanley says.

A more ambitious outcome (12% ROE, ~45% CTI, A$2bn savings) could push the share price towards $36–38. 

We covered the prospect of ANZ's shares experiencing a significant rally last month:

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Are ANZ’s shares due for a re-rate?

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citi's idea

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) – new customers inbound and dry powder

Citi has reiterated its Buy rating on Goodman Group (GMG) with a $40 target price, highlighting two major catalysts:

1. The topping out of its LAX01 Vernon data centre in Los Angeles – a key milestone with leasing deals expected soon. The facility will provide up to 32MW of IT power by 2026.

2. A US$1.3 billion (A$2bn) logistics partnership with a large Australian institutional investor, which both diversifies funding and underlines Goodman’s strength in capital-light development.

“This highlights the fact that Goodman is currently 1) executing on data centre developments and getting closer to possible execution of a leasing deal and 2) raising funding in logistics assets, creating further dry powder for development and investment," Citi says.

Citi argues that Goodman’s ability to scale both logistics and AI-linked data centres puts it ahead of traditional REIT peers.

MACQUARIE'S IDEA

Eagers Automotive (ASX: APE) - The Gorilla travels north

Macquarie remains positive on Eagers Automotive (APE), highlighting the A$1.04 billion acquisition of CanadaOne as a transformational deal that positions APE among the top-5 global auto retailers. The acquired business offers structurally higher margins and a Dealer Equity Partner model that aligns incentives.

However, the stock has already run ahead of Macquarie’s $29.98 target, trading above that level in early October.

“We believe APE’s recent re-rate is justified, reflective of 1) its increasing quality premium; 2) offshore growth opportunities; 3) potential earnings upgrade cycle; and 4) rate cuts," Macquarie says.

Outperform, but valuation is now stretched relative to its target price.