TOL - 7th Aug, 2026
Better late than never, AMP's turnaround story gathers momentum
Strong flows into AMP's North platform drove its first half result. Fidelity's James van de Graaff explains why the momentum could continue.
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In its first results announcement since Blair Vernon took the helm, AMP (ASX: AMP) has performed largely in line with analyst expectations for the first half of 2026. It's a considerably different story than six months ago, when a sharp sell-off followed the FY25 numbers.
Instead, investors have been encouraged by a 33% growth in underlying NPAT to $174 million, a plan for $150 million of on-market share buybacks, and strong net flows for its platforms business of $3.1 billion.
According to Fidelity’s James van de Graaff, it’s that last number that’s most telling, calling AMP’s results “mainly a platform story”.
Vernon appears to agree, calling out the “momentum we are building as we grow our wealth and retirement businesses” and the increased demand among both advisers and direct members.
Below, van de Graaff unpacks the results, the outlook going forward, and the drivers investors need to consider.
Key Results - 1H26
- Revenue up 6.2% to $671 million vs $680.7 million ests (1% miss)
- Underlying NPAT up 33% to $174 million vs $173.7 million ests (in line)
- Statutory NPAT up 57% to $154 million vs $159.0 million ests (3% miss)
- Interim dividend of 3 cents per share, 20% franked, vs 2 cps ests, with a further $150 million on-market buyback announced.
- Platforms net cashflows up 33% to $3.1 billion, while Super & Investments turned positive for the first time since 2017.
- Assets under management up 8.9% to $167.6 billion.
- China partnerships contribution more than doubled to $56 million, with combined annualised ROI improving to 16%.
- FY26 controllable costs guided to $630-640 million, with AMP Bank targeting $2.0 billion of AMP Bank GO deposits.
Do you currently hold AMP and what is your rating?
We currently own AMP in the Fidelity Future Leaders Fund. Given the share price rally over the last month or so, I'd say the risk-reward is less compelling than when we first invested.
However, in the market where earnings are being revised down at the margin, we like names that have organic growth and are earnings upgrade candidates. AMP fits that bill.
What matters from the results?
The key call out from the result was the platform segment. Net flows in the half were very strong at $3.1 billion despite the issues called out by its peers, HUB24 and Netwealth, when they talked about market volatility relating to the Middle East conflict and budget changes. That translated into really good operating leverage in the half and resulted in earnings beat versus expectations.
Another key call out from the result was the extension of the shareholder capital return program, with an additional $150 million in buybacks announced as well as a boost in the dividend.
How do those outcomes affect the outlook?
I try to think about this result in the context of the broader platforms market and its trajectory going forward. While AMP's North platform isn't on the same level as the main challengers, so your HUB24 and Netwealth, they've done really well to evolve the platform from being a market share donor to now actually growing share gradually and a becoming a credible scaled challenger.
As North continues to gain traction with advisers, we see scope for assets under management and market share to potentially expand from here.
What should investors be paying attention to as the story unfolds?
The largest upside driver is the durability of that platforms flow momentum, continued adviser adds and increased flows from existing advisers on the platform would further support that AUM growth and result in better operating leverage, all things equal.
Also, an interesting driver is the superannuation industry, where the superfunds begin to move towards increased outflows as more Australians transition into retirement. They want more tailored advice, they want more flexible investment products, and we see platforms as a key beneficiary of this dynamic.
On the risk side, the biggest risk that we see is the greater competition between platforms, whether we see something on the pricing side, whether we see something on the product side. Another key risk to call out is just if we see something akin to First Guardian emerge, which could lead to negative sentiment associated with platforms.
What could you be wrong about?
The reality of investing that I've found is that predicting the future is pretty hard and predictions can be wrong either on the upside or on the downside. I try to be approximately right rather than exactly wrong and focus on the direction of travel over the medium term, and I do that by tracking key performance indicators.
Regarding the investment case for AMP, if the amount of surplus capital returned to shareholders is overestimated (if AMP pursued large scale M&A, for example), I think it’s possible that could be a thesis breaker for a lot of investors on the register.
I could also be wrong about the durability of North's recent flow momentum. If this begins to taper from competition or from negative sentiment like we talked about before, or if the market becomes more risk off, we could see AMP underperforming the market.
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I’m a Senior Content Writer and Presenter at Livewire Markets, having previously covered the financial advice sector. I have a fundamental belief that taking the time to deeply research a topic drives true understanding, and nowhere is that more true than when investing your money.
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I’m a Senior Content Writer and Presenter at Livewire Markets, having previously covered the financial advice sector. I have a fundamental belief that taking the time to deeply research a topic drives true understanding, and nowhere is that more...
Expertise
No areas of expertise
I’m a Senior Content Writer and Presenter at Livewire Markets, having previously covered the financial advice sector. I have a fundamental belief that taking the time to deeply research a topic drives true understanding, and nowhere is that more...
Expertise
No areas of expertise
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