Bitcoin is back above A$100,000... for now
The US debt crisis and macro factors have seen Bitcoin post its best run since 2023.
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The unfolding situation in US bonds has excited many gold investors, but it's also quietly brought Bitcoin along for the ride.
The world's largest cryptocurrency has enjoyed its best week since 2023, jumping 23% to around US$79,000 (A$110,00) after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's decision to double buybacks on long-dated Treasury bonds.
That triggered a short squeeze on Bitcoin and sent it back to its highest price since May. While it's still down 31% over the last year, and still well off its October 2025 peak of US$120,000, what's most significant from the recent run is the hint of change in the air.
First and foremost, Bitcoin's surge suggests it is operating how a store of value hedge should do in the face of a developing debt crisis. That has not always been the case for Bitcoin, even if it has long been one of its advocates' major investment arguments.
Even legendary investor Ray Dalio has suggested investors add a "bit of Bitcoin" and gold to their portfolios in the face of the mounting debt crisis.
The recovery even brings Bitcoin's much-vaunted four-year cycle back in the conversation. If the June low of US$59,000 proves to be the cycle low, history would suggest the next few years would be the most profitable time to hold Bitcoin, provided the cycle theory - built around Bitcoin's halving - holds true.
Bitcoin's recovery meant it moved past a key indicator - the 200-day moving average - meaning its current price is higher than the average price over the last 200 days. According to AMP's Shane Oliver, "that move confirmed the end of the last four crypto winters, which saw circa 80 per cent falls."
Michael Saylor's Strategy is now even back in the black on its 840,000 Bitcoin holdings, even if it has chosen to raise its cash reserves instead of buying more Bitcoin over the last week.
US Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have also seen huge net inflows, with US$1.92 billion in BTC and US$697 million in ETH flowing in last week.
It's proof that there are still willing buyers of Bitcoin out there, provided its investment thesis can be justified in the real world. The question now is whether it continues to be.
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Tom is a Senior Investment Writer and Presenter at Livewire Markets, having worked as a writer and editor for 10 years, specialising in investing and personal finance.
He has previously worked at Finder, FourFourTwo and Man Of Many covering everything from film to football.
He has a Masters in Media Production and a Bachelor's in Journalism.
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Tom is a Senior Investment Writer and Presenter at Livewire Markets, having worked as a writer and editor for 10 years, specialising in investing and personal finance. He has previously worked at Finder, FourFourTwo and Man Of Many covering...
Expertise
Tom is a Senior Investment Writer and Presenter at Livewire Markets, having worked as a writer and editor for 10 years, specialising in investing and personal finance. He has previously worked at Finder, FourFourTwo and Man Of Many covering...
Expertise
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