Bitcoin's true believers are still buying as investors await what happens next

Few geopolitical events have the power to impact markets across effectively the entire spectrum of asset classes, but the conflict in the Middle East has proven to be one of them.

As stocks, commodities, bonds, precious metals whipsaw in response to the latest announcements from Washington and Tehran, there's one emergent asset class that may as well have been trading in an alternate reality. 

Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency and one of 2025's more intriguing market stories, is seemingly immune to the wider events disrupting other markets.

The conflict in the Middle East has had no material impact on Bitcoin's price, and the two-week ceasefire announced yesterday is another case in point. 

While stocks markets and precious metals jumped higher and oil crashed on the news, Bitcoin barely moved.

This type of broader market beta would normally be considered a potential boon to investors in times of elevated volatility and uncertainty, but Bitcoin has failed on that front. 

After posting a new all-time high in October last year, Bitcoin has now fallen 36%, leaving many to wonder if the shine has again come off an asset known for its volatile price movements. 

But one segment of its investor base remains dedicated to the cause, according to data from Monochrome, the Australian crypto ETF provider. 

Believers are still buying

Because of its low fees and in-kind deposits (where real Bitcoin can be exchanged directly for units in the ETF), the Monochrome Bitcoin ETF (Bridget Nichols.

"Given Monochrome’s bitcoin pedigree, we tend to attract long-term bitcoin investors," says Nichols. "These investors understand that volatility is part and parcel of a bitcoin investment and tend to be comfortable with persistence and patience as an investment approach."

Monochrome's transaction data would bear that out. While inflows to other Bitcoin ETFs have faltered in recent months, Nichols says IBTC has seen only one day of net outflows since October's all-time high. 

Over that time, IBTC creations have also outpaced redemptions at a ratio of around 4-to-1. The true believers are buying, and see negative price action as an opportunity, not a setback, says Nichols. 

Monochrome's BTC AUM has grown as Bitcoin's price has stalled

In fact, some of the Monochrome Bitcoin ETF's biggest daily inflows, as measured by the highest number of creation units (a block of newly-issued ETF shares), have come on days that saw Bitcoin's biggest price decreases. This includes 1 December 2025, where the cryptocurrency dropped almost 6%, and 6 February 2025, where it fell more than 8%. 

Where casual investors may have jumped ship for gold and silver after Bitcoin tumbled in late 2025, many of Monochrome's customers are here for the long term. 

"People invest for many different reasons, but ultimately the fundamentals are still the same as they were back at all-time-high," says Nichols.

According to Nichols, many believe in the long-term thesis of Bitcoin as an independent hedge against centralised currencies and monetary policy. 

"The best thing about Bitcoin specifically is that even though the price is lower, it is still the same Bitcoin. The network is still operating as it should, and there is still a finite supply."

It's why Monochrome's customers continue to buy Bitcoin through the downturn even as other investors chase opportunities elsewhere.

For one Monochrome investor, who wished to remain anonymous, the volatility that continues to engulf markets today is simply another argument in Bitcoin's favour. 

"I consider Bitcoin an essential hedge against both legacy monetary systems encumbered by increasing debt and a strained geopolitical environment. For me, I ask what happens when our systems break in relation to liquidity, scarcity or access."

And Monochrome's product is inherently aligned with that worldview.

"I choose to utilise IBTC specifically because of its bare trust structure - having a promissory note for Bitcoin is almost contradictory to my consideration of it as an investment."

For those committed to the Bitcoin cause, drowning out the short-term noise is simply part of the process, whether that's politics or price action.

"The past few months are just a snapshot in a longer timeframe," says Nichols. "Savvy investors will see this as an opportunity, rather than a failure to fulfil a use case."