In The AFR I present a contrarian analysis that argues Brexit could have entirely counter-intuitive consequences that are entirely antithetical to its leaders' goals: it may in fact end up destroying the United Kingdom as we know it; make the EU stronger; leave the UK's original constituents as members of the union; and have few meaningful ramifications for the global economy: "At its essence Brexit was a debate about the trade-off between the subterranean economic benefits of accessing the world's largest free market juxtaposed against the much more visible costs of free passage of peoples between the EU's 28 members (and higher immigration into the UK) coupled with the subordination of domestic lawmaking to the EU's "supra-national" legislative process...Yet views on the merits of Brexit could shift radically once the costs of the counterfactual become ubiquitous. A dramatic reduction in UK investment, increase in unemployment, and a recession combined with a sharp rise in the cost of living will cast into relief the price Britain is paying to erect barriers to the rest of the world." Free (VIEW LINK)
Christopher Joye is Co-Chief Investment Officer of Coolabah Capital Investments, which is a leading active credit manager that runs over $2.2 billion in short-term fixed-income strategies. He is also a Contributing Editor with The AFR.