After twenty months of political brinkmanship and the painstaking negotiations of a small army of technocrats, the UK parliament votes on Tuesday on a Brexit deal that Theresa May’s government has negotiated with the EU. The vote is almost certainly going to fail. Show More
During the last quarter US economic strength led market sentiment, resulting in a widening valuation gap between the US market and the rest of the world. This widening gap implies a much more favourable backdrop for long-term returns outside the US. Expectations of non-US countries are not only lower, but... Show More
In 1979, Greenland was granted autonomy within the Danish Realm and three years later the island’s parliament held a vote on EU membership. The main issue was control of Greenland’s fishing rights. By 53% to 47%, Greenlanders opted to leave. It took three years to formulate the island’s departure and... Show More
Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year. Show More
The events surrounding Brexit have spun off many important lessons for markets, not least of which is the importance of considering all possible outcomes when assessing risk in financial markets. Show More
Local market fell on the open and then made a surprise recovery on the back of global investors trying to find a home out of Japan. Local market was supported by Banks turning positive from negative during the day while the outperformers were Gold and Energy when the Miners were... Show More
In a 45-minute speech, last night Theresa May outlined her plans/hopes for BREXIT which was tough enough to send European equities lower, led by the UK FTSE which fell 1.5%. There is a long and potentially torturous journey ahead in the negotiations between Britain and the EU. Hence a correction... Show More
After the recent experience with the Brexit vote in the UK and election of Donald Trump as President of the US, which are indicative of a nationalist backlash against the pro-globalisation establishment, there is a fear that Europe will go the same way with nationalist forces in Italy, Austria, France,... Show More
It’s very much reminiscent of the Brexit vote, where the polls also said the vote would be very close. There seems to be the same motivating factors with respect to voters too – principally those who have lost jobs and who feel they haven’t benefited at all from globalisation and... Show More
Paul Moore, Chief Investment Officer and founder of PM CAPITAL, says recent noise in investment markets linked to specific events such as Brexit has hidden the fact that the world is at an inflection point. Interest rates may have hit their lows after an historic bull run and he says... Show More
"We believe we are approaching a dramatic fulcrum point in public opinion in Europe. Since the Brexit referendum we have been developing our thoughts about what the Leave vote might mean, not just for the UK, but for the European project as a whole. And our main conclusion is that... Show More
UK Prime Minister, Theresa May told the Conservative Party Conference that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty would be invoked – formally ending their treaty with the EU – by the end of March 2017. May emphasized in her speech that neither the House of Commons nor the House of... Show More
The UK decided to join the EEC in 1973, just as today it has decided to exit the European Union. Both were difficult times. The world had enjoyed continuous economic growth from 1945 to 1973 – what the French called the ‘Trente Glorieuses’. But in the 70s, the world trading... Show More
Europe’s biggest banks have been reporting their first-half earnings over the past two weeks. The results aren’t pretty. Profits and share prices are down across the industry, with earnings eroded by low or negative interest rates across the continent. Many lenders are still struggling to restructure their businesses, and continue... Show More
Bear Stearns, the US investment bank that was the first domino to fall in the GFC, was promised a bailout by the New York Fed on March 14, 2008. Within the next week, the Fed pulled the offer, and the firm collapsed. In hindsight, it should be obvious that this... Show More
Given the external shock created by Brexit and the initial impact on our UK and European Investments, our CIO Paul Moore provides a further update on Brexit and the global markets in our June quarterly video update. "So clearly with Brexit it is a more difficult environment; uncertainty has increased.... Show More
While markets have in many cases recovered from their Brexit jitters, we are remaining cautious. There is still significant uncertainty surrounding the consequences and timeframe of the eventual exit of Britain from the EU. Likewise, we are skeptical of the sustainability of the recovery in risk assets which seems in... Show More
In my weekly column for The AFR I always like to engage with new investment talent, and my latest missive profiles Dr Desmond Lun, the Australian MIT PhD who is a professor of computer science at Rutgers University in the US and the manger of a systematic quant fund that... Show More
The impact of Brexit will be profound on the UK’s financials sector, at least in the short-term. As we write, we have reports of large property funds ‘gating’ redemptions. We have sold our positions in CYBG Plc, Henderson Group and reduced our holding in Macquarie Group. The expectations for Henderson... Show More
Aussie market started with a bang and then gave it all up before finishing at the highs of the day. The main drivers were banks and miners after solid global lead and strong commodities. The market has moved from Brexit worry to stimulus party. We turned bullish on Tuesday 28th... Show More
