BREXIT - some stats, what has changed, and a logical hedge

Thomas Schoenmaker

Wentworth Securities

Sell in May and go away just needed a catalyst! It arrived yesterday, with fears of BREXIT (poll 23 June).The FT "poll of polls" tracker has "leave" in front for the first time for several months 47% v 45%. Not so convinced are the betting websites, which still have "stay" as favorite ($1.55 stay vs $2.35 - leave from AUS websites). The momentum is with "leave", for now - BREXIT now 39.9% probability up from 22.2% at end May. The most direct hedge would be the Sterling, and bonds continue to rally. Full note (VIEW LINK)


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Thomas Schoenmaker
Director and Head of Wealth Management
Wentworth Securities

Tom is a Founder and Head of Wealth Management. For the past 10 years, he has been running the Wentworth Model Portfolios, focusing on macroeconomics and tactical equity positioning. These portfolios were initially created as a solution for "core...

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