BREXIT - some stats, what has changed, and a logical hedge
Sell in May and go away just needed a catalyst! It arrived yesterday, with fears of BREXIT (poll 23 June).The FT "poll of polls" tracker has "leave" in front for the first time for several months 47% v 45%. Not so convinced are the betting websites, which still have "stay" as favorite ($1.55 stay vs $2.35 - leave from AUS websites). The momentum is with "leave", for now - BREXIT now 39.9% probability up from 22.2% at end May. The most direct hedge would be the Sterling, and bonds continue to rally. Full note (VIEW LINK)
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Tom is a Founder and Head of Wealth Management. Since 2012, he has been running the Alpine Model Portfolios, focusing on macroeconomics and tactical equity positioning. These portfolios were initially created as a solution for "core wealth management" for Alpine's HNW clients, and are now openly available online through the website. Everything starts with the macro, and then we work back from there in terms of asset allocation and positioning for risk. We work with leading independent research providers and have a structured approach that has worked very well over time. Outside of the core portfolios, we look for opportunities in the small to mid-cap sectors of the market, where our experience can add value.
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