BREXIT - some stats, what has changed, and a logical hedge
Sell in May and go away just needed a catalyst! It arrived yesterday, with fears of BREXIT (poll 23 June).The FT "poll of polls" tracker has "leave" in front for the first time for several months 47% v 45%. Not so convinced are the betting websites, which still have "stay" as favorite ($1.55 stay vs $2.35 - leave from AUS websites). The momentum is with "leave", for now - BREXIT now 39.9% probability up from 22.2% at end May. The most direct hedge would be the Sterling, and bonds continue to rally. Full note (VIEW LINK)
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