BTIM - Oil to $20 and Chinese growth tracking at 4 to 5%

At a recent investment forum Vimal Gor, Head of Income & Fixed Interest at BT Investment Management highlighted what he sees as the three deflationary drivers behind recent market moves. Strength of the USD is slowing the US more than it is pushing growth to the rest of the world. Oil is in a structural downturn and will go to $20 and stay due to geo-political change in the Middle East and Fracking. Japanese currency depreciation is causing a negative export hit to those countries in the same value zone. This includes China, Gor sees “Chinese growth tracking at 4 to 5%”… and on a slowing trajectory rather than the 7% that the authorities would like.